{"id":9224,"date":"2026-03-16T09:42:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9224"},"modified":"2026-03-16T09:42:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:42:49","slug":"risks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-escalating-and-inflation-is-looming-large-ace-markets-analyzes-the-underlying-logic-behind-the-feds-unlikely-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/zh_hk\/risks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-escalating-and-inflation-is-looming-large-ace-markets-analyzes-the-underlying-logic-behind-the-feds-unlikely-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u98a8\u96aa\u5347\u7d1a\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u903c\u8fd1\uff01 ACE Markets\u5206\u6790\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f\u7684\u80cc\u5f8c\u908f\u8f2f"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ACE Markets\u5373\u6642\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u76e3\u6e2c\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u65b0\u4efb\u6700\u9ad8\u9818\u8896\u8a93\u8a00\u95dc\u9589\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570bWTI\u539f\u6cb9\u671f\u8ca8\u7acb\u5373\u6536\u5728\u6bcf\u687695.70\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u5347\u76f4\u63a5\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u901a\u81a8\u9810\u671f\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5ddd\u666e\u8981\u6c42\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7acb\u5373\u964d\u606f\u5f62\u6210\u9bae\u660e\u5c0d\u6bd4\u3002\u6839\u64daACE Markets\u5229\u7387\u671f\u8ca8\u5b9a\u50f9\u76e3\u6e2c\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u8ffd\u8e64\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u6b21\u4e2d\u6771\u885d\u7a81\u524d\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u6839\u672c\u6027\u8f49\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n

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\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u4e8c. 1 \u6708 PCE \u6578\u64da\u8b49\u5be6\u901a\u81a8\u9ecf\u6027\uff1b\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u6f32\u5c07\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u5f8c\u7e8c\u901a\u81a8\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets\u901a\u81a8\u76e3\u6e2c\u5718\u968a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b1\u6708PCE\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u9ecf\u6027\u9060\u8d85\u5e02\u5834\u6eab\u548c\u6210\u9577\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e14\u8a72\u6578\u64da\u5c1a\u672a\u8003\u616e\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u901a\u81a8\u4e0a\u884c\u58d3\u529b\u5c07\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5287\u3002\u5546\u52d9\u90e8\u5ef6\u9072\u516c\u4f48\u76841\u6708PCE\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4PCE\u5b63\u589e0.3%\uff0c\u7b26\u5408\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5e74\u6bd4\u5c0f\u5e45\u56de\u843d\u81f32.8%\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u53c3\u8003\u6838\u5fc3PCE\uff08\u4e0d\u542b\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\uff09\u8868\u73fe\u66f4\u70ba\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u5b63\u589e0.4%\uff0c\u5e74\u6bd4\u6500\u5347\u81f33.1%\uff0c\u8f0312\u6708\u4e0a\u53470.1\u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u5169\u500b\u6708\u5b63\u589e0.4%\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u504f\u96e2\u806f\u6e96\u67032%\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

ACE Markets\u5546\u54c1\u901a\u81a8\u50b3\u5c0e\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u50b3\u5c0e\u6548\u61c9\u5c07\u57283\u6708\u4efd\u958b\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u986f\u73fe\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u5347\u76f4\u63a5\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u6c7d\u8eca\u71c3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5c45\u6c11\u51fa\u884c\u548c\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u5316\u80a5\u6599\u548c\u539f\u6cb9\u6838\u5fc3\u904b\u8f38\u901a\u9053\u7684\u970d\u723e\u6728\u8332\u6d77\u5cfd\uff0c\u5176\u901a\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u5c07\u63a8\u9ad8\u5316\u80a5\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u50b3\u5c0e\u81f3\u98df\u54c1\u696d\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u67f4\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u5c07\u589e\u52a0\u6574\u500b\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u904b\u8f38\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u5f62\u6210\u5f9e\u80fd\u6e90\u5230\u98df\u54c1\u518d\u5230\u5de5\u696d\u54c1\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u50b3\u5c0e\u93c8\u3002 ACE Markets\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8207\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\u5c07\u518d\u6b21\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u5c0d 2026 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u6838\u5fc3 PCE \u901a\u81a8\u7387\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u8207\u8a72\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8a08\u7b97\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u4e09\uff0e\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u653f\u7b56\u56f0\u5883\u6301\u7e8c\u52a0\u5287\uff0c3\u6708FOMC\u6703\u8b70\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets\u2019\u5b8f\u89c0\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u76ee\u524d\u9762\u81e8\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u75b2\u8edf\u5c0e\u81f4\u964d\u606f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8207\u61c9\u5c0d\u9ad8\u901a\u81a8\u548c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u6240\u63a8\u52d5\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u9700\u8981\u56b4\u91cd\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u60c5\u6cc1\u5df2\u5f97\u5230\u591a\u5bb6\u9802\u7d1a\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u8b49\u5be6\u3002\u5f9e\u653f\u7b56\u7d04\u675f\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c1\u6708PCE\u6578\u64da\u8b49\u5be6\u4e86\u901a\u81a8\u9ecf\u6027\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u9811\u56fa\u6027\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u9280\u884c\u3001\u82b1\u65d7\u96c6\u5718\u7b49\u6a5f\u69cb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524dPCE\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u6703\u8b93\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c0d\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u9ad8\u5ea6\u8b39\u614e\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u885d\u7a81\u5c0d\u6cb9\u50f9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5c1a\u672a\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u901a\u81a8\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u5c0e\u81f4\u901a\u81a8\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c07\u88ab\u8feb\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5c07\u300c\u53cd\u901a\u81a8\u300d\u4f5c\u70ba\u9996\u8981\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64daCPI\u6578\u64da\u964d\u606f\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u8207\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u95dc\u6ce8PCE\u6578\u64da\u7522\u751f\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5167\u90e8\u610f\u898b\u5206\u6b67\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u88fd\u7d04\u5bec\u9b06\u6b65\u4f10\u3002<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

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\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

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