{"id":7692,"date":"2025-08-26T08:21:41","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T08:21:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=7692"},"modified":"2025-09-23T01:41:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T01:41:09","slug":"powell-bets-on-interest-rate-cuts-to-stabilize-employment-and-the-august-non-farm-data-becomes-the-first-touchstone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/zh_hk\/powell-bets-on-interest-rate-cuts-to-stabilize-employment-and-the-august-non-farm-data-becomes-the-first-touchstone\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u62bc\u6ce8\u964d\u606f\u7a69\u5c31\u696d\uff0c8\u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u6578\u64da\u6210\u300c\u7b2c\u4e00\u584a\u8a66\u91d1\u77f3\u300d\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e0a\u9031\u4e94\uff0c\u5728\u61f7\u4fc4\u660e\u5dde\u5091\u514b\u905c\u970d\u723e\u8209\u884c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u592e\u884c\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u4e0a\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6697\u793a\u5c07\u57289\u6708\u7f55\u898b\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u662f\u8fd1\u4e00\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3002\u6b64\u8209\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u5287\u70c8\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9700\u8981\u5e73\u8861\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u9805\u65e8\u5728\u300c\u4ee5\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u652f\u6301\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u901a\u81a8\u5931\u63a7\u300d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 8\u6708\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u5c07\u5c0d9\u6708\u964d\u606f\u662f\u5426\u514c\u73fe\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f8c\u7e8c\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u81f3\u95dc\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

1.\u964d\u606f\u8a0a\u865f\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u80cc\u666f\uff1a\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u64d4\u6182\u52a0\u5287<\/h2>\n
    \n
  1. \u95dc\u9375\u6578\u64da\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u9019\u4e00\u8f49\u8b8a<\/strong>\uff1a7\u6708\u4efd\u7f8e\u570b\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u4fee\uff0c5\u6708\u548c6\u6708\u5c31\u696d\u6210\u9577\u5f31\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u3002\u4fee\u6b63\u5f8c\uff0c\u81ea6\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u6708\u50c5\u589e\u52a03.5\u842c\u500b\u5c31\u696d\u5d17\u4f4d\uff0c\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc2024\u5e74\u9810\u671f\u768416.8\u842c\u500b\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u7d66\u5e02\u5834\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0e\u81f4\u5ddd\u666e\u89e3\u96c7\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u5de5\u90e8\u9996\u5e2d\u7d71\u8a08\u5e2b\uff0c\u4e26\u6210\u70ba\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u958b\u555f\u964d\u606f\u5927\u9580\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u8f49\u6298\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\u5716\u7247<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5728\u591a\u7dad\u5ea6\u8870\u9000 <\/strong>:\n
        \n
      • \u4f01\u696d\u62db\u8058\u6b63\u5728\u840e\u7e2e\uff1a2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u96c7\u4e3b\u6bcf\u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u5c07\u986f\u8457\u4f4e\u65bc\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u53cd\u5f48\u6642\u671f\u3002\u53d7\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u61c9\u7528\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u666e\u904d\u63a8\u9072\u4e86\u62db\u8058\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u900f\u9732\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u88c1\u54e1\u3002\u9ad8\u7ba1\u5916\u5305\u516c\u53f8Challenger, Gray & Christmas\u7684\u5b89\u8fea\u00b7\u67e5\u6797\u6770\uff08Andy Challenger\uff09\u76f4\u8a00\uff0c\u201c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u78ba\u5be6\u6b63\u5728\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u7406\u7531\u591a\u65bc\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u201d<\/li>\n
      • \u9577\u671f\u6c42\u8077\u4eba\u6578\u6fc0\u589e<\/strong>\uff1a7\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9577\u671f\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u7d04\u70ba180\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u5373\u5c0b\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\u6642\u9593\u8d85\u904e27\u9031\u7684\u4eba\u54e1\uff0c\u8f03\u4e09\u5e74\u524d\u589e\u957764%\uff0c\u8f03\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u589e\u957720%\u3002\u53d7\u4f01\u696d\u88c1\u54e1\u9810\u671f\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6c42\u8077\u96e3\u554f\u984c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u96e3\u4ee5\u7de9\u89e3\u3002<\/li>\n
      • \u5e74\u8f15\u4eba<\/strong>\u767c\u73fe\u6c42\u8077\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u96e3\uff1a\u65b0\u9032\u5165\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u61c9\u5c46\u7562\u696d\u751f\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u5927\u5b78\u751f\u548c\u9ad8\u4e2d\u751f\uff09\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u627e\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u96e3\u3002 7\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u65b0\u9032\u5165\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u4f54\u7e3d\u5931\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f9e2022\u5e74\u76841\/12\u4e0a\u5347\u52301\/7\u3002\u9019\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u53d6\u4ee3\u5165\u9580\u7d1a\u8077\u4f4d\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8077\u696d\u6559\u7df4Tracy Newell\u7a31\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u7562\u696d\u751f\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u201c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u98a8\u66b4\u201d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u516c\u53f8\u9650\u5236\u5165\u9580\u7d1a\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u6c42\u8077\u7af6\u722d\u7570\u5e38\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        \"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. \u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6b0a\u8861<\/strong>\uff1a\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u80a9\u8ca0\u8457\u6291\u5236\u901a\u81a8\u548c\u4fdd\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u96d9\u91cd\u4f7f\u547d\u3002\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5169\u96e3\uff1a\u901a\u81a8\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u8edf\u3002\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7576\u52d9\u4e4b\u6025\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u81a8\u548c\u7dad\u6301\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u201c\u7dca\u6025\u63f4\u52a9\u201d\uff0c\u4e26\u8b66\u544a\u7a31\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5c31\u696d\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u6210\u70ba\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u201c\u88c1\u54e1\u6fc0\u589e\u548c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u98c6\u5347\u201d\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u901a\u81a8\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u63a7\uff08\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u300c\u5de5\u8cc7-\u7269\u50f9\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347\u300d\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u9650\u5236\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u77ed\u7f3a\u50c5\u9650\u65bc\u5c11\u6578\u884c\u696d\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u5de5\u8cc7\u589e\u9577\u52a0\u901f\u7684\u8de1\u50cf\u4e5f\u8f03\u5f31\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u70ba\u964d\u606f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          2. 8\u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\uff1a9\u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u56e0\u7d20<\/h2>\n
            \n
          1. \u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6578\u64da\u6b0a\u91cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6697\u793a\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u660e\u78ba\u5c078\u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u8996\u70ba9\u6708\u964d\u606f\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u6c7a\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u9ad8\u76db\u5718\u968a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c8\u6708\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u8dcc\u783410\u842c\uff0c9\u6708\u964d\u606f\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u677f\u4e0a\u91d8\u91d8\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u4ed6\u50118\u6708\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u6a5f\u67038\u842c\u500b\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a3\u67083.5\u842c\u500b\u7684\u6708\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u5c07\u8d85\u904e\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u300c\u5747\u8861\u6210\u9577\u300d\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u4e26\u78ba\u8a8d\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u8da8\u52e2\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            \"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. \u6578\u64da\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u5b58\u7591<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u76db\u8b66\u544a\u7a31\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u81e8\u591a\u91cd\u9ad8\u4f30\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u751f\u6ec5\u6a21\u578b\u300d\u8a87\u5927\u5be6\u969b\u5c31\u696d\u898f\u6a21\u3001ADP\u6578\u64da\u8207\u5b98\u65b9\u91ab\u7642\u884c\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u3001\u79fb\u6c11\u5c31\u696d\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u5bb6\u5ead\u8abf\u67e5\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u7b49\u3002<\/li>\n
            2. \u5c31\u696d\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u539f\u56e0<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c31\u696d\u6210\u9577\u7684\u6e1b\u5f31\u4e0d\u50c5\u56e0\u70ba\u8cbf\u6613\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9084\u56e0\u70ba\u5148\u524d\u652f\u6490\u6578\u64da\u7684\u300c\u8ffd\u8d95\u6027\u62db\u8058\u300d\uff08\u586b\u88dc\u90e8\u5206\u884c\u696d\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u7f3a\u53e3\uff09\u5728\u8a31\u591a\u9818\u57df\u5df2\u7d93\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u5269\u9918\u884c\u696d\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u589e\u9577\u5e7e\u4e4e\u56de\u6b78\u96f6\uff0c\u9019\u82072025\u5e74\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u64d4\u5fc3\u300c\u884c\u52d5\u592a\u665a\uff0c\u932f\u904e\u7a69\u5b9a\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u671f\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              \"IMG_258\"<\/p>\n

              \u4e09\u3001\u5f8c\u7e8c\u964d\u606f\u7bc0\u594f\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u5354\u8abf\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027<\/h2>\n
                \n
              1. \u964d\u606f\u7bc0\u594f\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u5931\u696d\u7387<\/strong>\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f9\u6708\u5be6\u65bd\u964d\u606f\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5269\u9918\u6642\u9593\u548c2026\u5e74\u7684\u964d\u606f\u7bc0\u594f\u4e5f\u5c07\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u5df4\u514b\u840a\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u55ac\u7d0d\u68ee\u00b7\u7c73\u52d2\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u66f4\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5c31\u696d\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5c07\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u6b78\u5e38\u614b\u3002\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5c07\u5805\u6301\u300c\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7d93\u6fdf\u523a\u6fc0\u300d\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u76ee\u524d4.25%-4.5%\u7684\u5229\u7387\u5340\u9593\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u9031\u671f\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u6b64\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u6b64\u524d\u7dca\u7e2e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u300d\u3002<\/li>\n
              2. \u300c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6642\u4ee3\u5f8c\u300d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9023\u7d50<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u76db\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u6216\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff0c\u672c\u8f2a\u964d\u606f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efb\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e0a\u4efb\u6642\u5c31\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u56e0\u61c9\u77ed\u671f\u5c31\u696d\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e5f\u70ba\u5f8c\u7e8c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u929c\u63a5\u92ea\u588a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                \"\u5716\u7247<\/p>\n

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