{"id":9927,"date":"2026-10-12T09:20:27","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:20:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9927"},"modified":"2026-10-12T09:20:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:20:32","slug":"energy-inflation-coupled-with-fiscal-rifts-french-debt-risks-stir-up-complex-games-in-the-eurozone-bond-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/energy-inflation-coupled-with-fiscal-rifts-french-debt-risks-stir-up-complex-games-in-the-eurozone-bond-market\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh: R\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p khu\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Eurozone"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng cao \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u do c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. ACE Markets, sau khi ki\u1ec3m tra ch\u00e9o c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p, d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ECB, k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n sao \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u n\u0103m 2012. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 hai trong khu v\u1ef1c Eurozone, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng lan t\u1ecfa m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u00e9p l\u00e0 \u201cb\u00e1n r\u1ee7i ro\u201d v\u00e0 \u201cmua khi gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p\u201d. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng xem v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f4 l\u1eadp, kh\u00f4ng k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i n\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, chu k\u1ef3 b\u1ea7u c\u1eed v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, d\u1ec5 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>\n

Logic c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a r\u1ee7i ro: N\u1ee3 cao c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao, m\u1ed9t \u201cs\u1ef1 b\u00f3p ngh\u1eb9t d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n\u201d \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra.<\/h2>\n

Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Ph\u00e1p g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Ph\u00e1p k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m l\u00ean 5%, m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2002. Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m Ph\u00e1p-\u0110\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, v\u1edbi ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng nhanh. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n m\u1ee9c n\u1ee3 cao s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c, nh\u01b0ng r\u1ee7i ro l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh r\u1ee7i ro t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. Khi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng nhanh trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn, tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh sang kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng tr\u1ea3 n\u1ee3 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1eb1ng sau s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd hi\u1ec7n nay c\u1ee7a ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Ph\u00e1p-\u0110\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20261012_142055\"<\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n s\u00e2u xa n\u1eb1m \u1edf m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 k\u00e9p: t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed t\u00e1i c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. N\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi 3,6 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 euro, \u0111\u1ea1t g\u1ea7n 120% GDP v\u00e0 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y trong n\u0103m nay d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd l\u00ean t\u1edbi 5,4%, v\u01b0\u1ee3t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 3% c\u1ee7a EU. Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1974, v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u201cb\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra\u201d trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ee9c n\u1ee3 l\u00ean cao.<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u00ean, m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn n\u1ee3 ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p \u0111ang \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. N\u0103m t\u1edbi, vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Ph\u00e1p s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 h\u01a1n 1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n t\u00e1i c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 2030. C\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n thanh to\u00e1n l\u00e3i vay hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang thu h\u1eb9p kh\u00f4ng gian ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Ph\u00e1p m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u00f3p ngh\u1eb9t d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf: chi ph\u00ed l\u00e3i vay ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ng\u1ea5u nghi\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t chi ti\u00eau c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu th\u00eam kh\u00f4ng gian ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

Chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t: tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf b\u1ea7u c\u1eed \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/h2>\n

C\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh x\u1ea5u \u0111i ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9ng; \u0111i\u1ec1u th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 t\u00ednh kh\u1ea3 thi v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 thi\u1ec3u s\u1ed1 \u1edf Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec7 tr\u00ecnh d\u1ef1 th\u1ea3o ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch cho n\u0103m 2027, l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u1eeb 5,4% xu\u1ed1ng 5% th\u00f4ng qua c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau v\u00e0 t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngay c\u1ea3 khi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 tr\u00ean GDP v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00ean 122%.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20261012_144347\"<\/p>\n

ACE Markets, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3: ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng chi\u1ebfm \u0111a s\u1ed1 trong qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i, cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng n\u0103m 2027 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh ch\u1ed1ng th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra; m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean \u1edf c\u1ea3 c\u00e1nh t\u1ea3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1nh h\u1eefu \u0111\u1ec1u nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng th\u00eam chi ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua, Ph\u00e1p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o lu\u1eadt kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu c\u00e1c l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, Ph\u00e1p kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u00e1 bi\u1ec7t; T\u00e2y Ban Nha v\u00e0 \u00dd c\u0169ng \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o chu k\u1ef3 b\u1ea7u c\u1eed, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (Eurozone), l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro lan t\u1ecfa kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh: Lan r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb Ph\u00e1p, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, ng\u00e0nh ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c.<\/h2>\n

Nh\u1edd t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng mang t\u00ednh h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p trong khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro, r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n trong bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi logic truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. ACE Markets quan s\u00e1t th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p, ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1eafc n\u1ee3 cao nh\u01b0 \u00dd, T\u00e2y Ban Nha, B\u1ec9 v\u00e0 Hy L\u1ea1p \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng, cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng t\u00ednh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u1ee7a n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u1eefa. R\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c lan r\u1ed9ng ra b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i: \u0111\u1ed3ng euro suy y\u1ebfu do r\u1ee7i ro t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh; Khu v\u1ef1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u0169ng tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 do h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20261012_142736\"<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro n\u00e0y c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y: T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, n\u00f3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao, \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t n\u00f3, l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e1i c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n n\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c nhau. Hai r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh n\u00e0y\u2014n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\u2014\u0111ang c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 l\u1eabn nhau, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam t\u00ednh d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng chung c\u1ee7a Khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u00e9p: trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1n th\u00e1o ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111ang \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u201cnh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra do \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai\u201d.<\/h2>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ef1 th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u00e0 b\u1eeba b\u00e3i c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00e2u \u00c2u; thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, n\u00f3 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1eebng tin t\u1ee9c d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u1ecf qua. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn v\u1eabn th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p, kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed; tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ed1n l\u1edbn b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u mua nh\u1eefng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ecb tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch b\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng do suy tho\u00e1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, bao g\u1ed3m tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ngo\u1ea1i vi t\u1eeb \u00dd v\u00e0 T\u00e2y Ban Nha, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u.<\/p>\n

Logic r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: r\u1ee7i ro lan t\u1ecfa c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m chung v\u1ec1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng ty kh\u00f4ng g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Ph\u00e1p. C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c th\u01b0\u1eddng tin r\u1eb1ng m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u 2010-2012. Khung th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng truy\u1ec1n TPI, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. Nh\u1eefng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1ecb b\u00e1n th\u00e1o nh\u1ea7m do ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u00f2n ch\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ec3 thu h\u1ed3i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 sai l\u1ec7ch v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20261012_145123\"<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan; C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 thu\u1ed1c ch\u1eefa b\u00e1ch b\u1ec7nh.<\/h2>\n

Gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec1u m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c k\u00e9p l\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ee3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n. M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, do gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng euro v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft b\u1ea3o to\u00e0n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t h\u01a1n n\u1eefa; nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia m\u1eafc n\u1ee3 cao, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p, l\u1ea1i \u0111ang th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, m\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf cho t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t hy v\u1ecdng v\u00e0o c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng truy\u1ec1n TPI, nh\u01b0ng ACE Markets ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t g\u00f3i c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 v\u00f4 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n. K\u00edch ho\u1ea1t TPI y\u00eau c\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 n\u1ee3 b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u00e0 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a EU c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c. Ph\u00e1p hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c, \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m. N\u1ebfu ECB d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 n\u00e0y, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd hi\u1ec3u n\u00f3 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean, l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a ECB trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t; n\u1ebfu n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd cho ph\u00e9p r\u1ee7i ro ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n lan r\u1ed9ng ra b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Ph\u00e1p c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng khai tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean. ECB c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ACE<\/h2>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh:<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20261012_145352\"<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 s\u1edf <\/strong>: Phi\u00ean b\u1ea3n c\u0169 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ee3 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 x\u1eed l\u00fd kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ebd v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/li>\n
  2. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 <\/strong>: \u0110\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch b\u1ecb \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng b\u1ea7u c\u1eed ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng x\u1ea5u \u0111i v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, khi\u1ebfn r\u1ee7i ro nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan r\u1ed9ng ra b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng euro v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u.<\/li>\n
  3. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i <\/strong>: N\u1ebfu ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u00f3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb b\u00e1n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd ba t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh: k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i Ph\u00e1p, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng v\u00e0 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 TPI. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 xem n\u1ee3 ho\u1eb7c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 bi\u1ec7t l\u1eadp; \u00e1p l\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng qua l\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong chu k\u1ef3 b\u1ea7u c\u1eed.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    T\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a Ph\u00e1p, c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ECB t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1edbi nhau \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro v\u00e0 n\u01a1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 sai.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9928,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[993,994,995],"class_list":["post-9927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-eurozone-sovereign-debt-risk","tag-franco-german-bond-spread","tag-french-debt-crisis-2027"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9927"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9934,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9927\/revisions\/9934"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9928"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}