{"id":9624,"date":"2026-07-07T09:22:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T09:22:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9624"},"modified":"2026-07-07T09:22:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T09:22:28","slug":"from-supply-disruption-panic-to-ample-supply-a-deep-game-played-in-the-rapid-shift-of-the-crude-oil-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/from-supply-disruption-panic-to-ample-supply-a-deep-game-played-in-the-rapid-shift-of-the-crude-oil-market\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u1eeb ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o: m\u1ed9t tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc di\u1ec5n ra trong s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ch\u1ec9 trong v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb \u201cn\u1ed7i lo gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung\u201d sang \u201ck\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 cung\u201d. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Saudi Aramco trong 26 n\u0103m, vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a OPEC+ nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec1u g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent gi\u1ea3m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng Hai. Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a ACE Markets, d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o khung gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00ednh to\u00e1n chu k\u1ef3 t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 cao t\u1eeb v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n: t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo hi\u1ec7n nay v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1; tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa t\u1ed3n kho \u0111ang \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1n c\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb M\u1ef9-Iran. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro an ninh \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng suy gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u c\u0169ng b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o nhanh ch\u00f3ng th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c: Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn gi\u00e0nh th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a ph\u00eda cung \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u1edbi th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Iran v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf l\u1ea1i d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi l\u1ec7nh phong t\u1ecfa \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c chuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 5, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng t\u1eeb c\u1ea3ng Ras Tanura c\u1ee7a \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 90% m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb UAE, Kuwait v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng \u0111ang ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng do xung \u0111\u1ed9t g\u00e2y ra.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260706_143927\"<\/p>\n

Khi ngu\u1ed3n cung ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u1edf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00e2u \u00c1. Saudi Aramco \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Arab Light sang ch\u00e2u \u00c1 th\u00eam 11 USD\/th\u00f9ng trong th\u00e1ng 8, gi\u1ea3m 1,5 USD\/th\u00f9ng so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 chu\u1ea9n khu v\u1ef1c. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 26 n\u0103m, v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 8 USD. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ACE Markets tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y v\u1eeba l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 giao ngay suy y\u1ebfu, v\u1eeba l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1eb1m chi\u1ebfm th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o\u2014khi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng ch\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c1, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o c\u00e1c \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng qua l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng h\u01a1n n\u1eefa. T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong th\u00e1ng th\u1ee9 n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bl\u00e0 188.000 th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y trong th\u00e1ng 8. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y khi s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng ch\u1ec9 mang t\u00ednh bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng do gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c k\u00eanh v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf, \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 h\u1ea1n ng\u1ea1ch b\u1ed5 sung c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng ngu\u1ed3n cung th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c. Nhu c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng mua \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu l\u1ef1c mua \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 ngu\u1ed3n cung m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 giao ngay gi\u1ea3m: Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 giao ngay c\u1ee7a Oman t\u1eebng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 4 USD so v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 chu\u1ea9n Dubai, ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch; C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent v\u00e0 Dubai \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n sang gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n cho h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>M\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i b\u00ean d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u1edbp v\u1ecf ngo\u00e0i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo: vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trong khi vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ngu\u1ed3n cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i, vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chu k\u1ef3 t\u1ed3n kho c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang b\u1ecb ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb b\u1ecf qua nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean OECD gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 163 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 3 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 5, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 1990; D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef D\u1ea7u m\u1ecf Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c (SPR) c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1983, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c to l\u1edbn trong vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 sung ngu\u1ed3n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n ch\u1eadm.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260706_143836\"<\/p>\n

B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho \u0111ang l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc c\u00e1n c\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh M\u1ef9-Iran. C\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y ngay c\u1ea3 v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 200.000 th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 sung Kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t 15-18 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc xung \u0111\u1ed9t. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, thi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ed5 sung h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn, c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i chu k\u1ef3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2027. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng Iran tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfm th\u1ebf th\u01b0\u1ee3ng phong trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u201cphong t\u1ecfa Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u\u201d, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n 60 ng\u00e0y, ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi chu k\u1ef3 s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho, gi\u00fap M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n

<\/a>S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa phe b\u00f2 v\u00e0 phe g\u1ea5u ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng: \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i c\u00f9ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i.<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho th\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. Nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 gi\u00e1 xu\u1ed1ng tin r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nhu c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng mua h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 cung ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00ecm h\u00e3m gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 Citigroup d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 60 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay. Tuy nhi\u00ean, ACE Markets l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh c\u0169ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m: h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i khi nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nh\u1eb9 ho\u1eb7c ngu\u1ed3n cung bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng; h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, OPEC+ v\u1eabn c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng linh ho\u1ea1t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i, h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh s\u00e0n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro \u0111u\u00f4i c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean b\u1ecf qua. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111ang d\u1ea7n m\u1edf c\u1eeda tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i cho giao th\u00f4ng h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i nh\u01b0ng m\u00ecn v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u1edf v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n mi\u1ec1n Trung v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nguy c\u01a1 an ninh v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Ho\u00e0ng gia Canada d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00e0u ch\u1edf h\u00e0ng \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c xung quanh Houthi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee5c b\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 l\u00fac n\u00e0o. ACE Markets tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i ngu\u1ed3n cung, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 mong manh c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260706_144657\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u01b0\u1edbng theo d\u00f5i ch\u00ednh<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xem x\u00e9t ba kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh ch\u00ednh: cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u, h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 <\/strong>: Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, do ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 60-65 USD\/th\u00f9ng mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 k\u00e9p t\u1eeb nhu c\u1ea7u b\u1ed5 sung chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. Trong trung h\u1ea1n, do h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nh\u1eb9, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/li>\n
  2. B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb <\/strong>: T\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng r\u0103n \u0111e c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c phong t\u1ecfa eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ebfng n\u00f3i h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n M\u1ef9-Iran, nh\u01b0ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c v\u1eabn c\u00f2n mong manh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5c b\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/li>\n
  3. \u0110\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch <\/strong>: OPEC+ s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u201ct\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng + \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh linh ho\u1ea1t\u201d, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh linh ho\u1ea1t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 quan tr\u1ecdng cho gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    ACE Markets s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i b\u1ed1n kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a OPEC+, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ed5 sung h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh an ninh \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf v\u00e0 V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0, nh\u1eb1m k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u0103ng, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ t\u0103ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, trong khi t\u1ed3n kho th\u1ea5p h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[824,823,822],"class_list":["post-9624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-brent-crude-oil","tag-crude-oil-market","tag-oil-price-forecast"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9629,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9624\/revisions\/9629"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}