{"id":9584,"date":"2026-06-26T09:55:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T09:55:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9584"},"modified":"2026-06-26T09:55:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T09:55:56","slug":"the-pricing-logic-of-us-treasury-bonds-is-quietly-changing-and-the-warsh-reforms-are-reshaping-the-rules-of-the-global-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/the-pricing-logic-of-us-treasury-bonds-is-quietly-changing-and-the-warsh-reforms-are-reshaping-the-rules-of-the-global-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Logic \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111ang \u00e2m th\u1ea7m thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch Warsh \u0111ang \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u"},"content":{"rendered":"

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3: k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3m t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean 4,5% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 2 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ee9c 4,2%, duy tr\u00ec li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c trung t\u00e2m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ng\u00e0y cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi qu\u00fd \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean. ACE Markets, th\u00f4ng qua x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ma tr\u1eadn theo d\u00f5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n khung ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch m\u1edbi Warsh, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng, c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m neo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee9ng ngo\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c tranh lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c \u201ct\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong logic.<\/p>\n

<\/a>I. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng: T\u1eeb \u201cCung c\u1ea5p h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d sang \u201c\u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang l\u00e0 \u201ch\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc\u201d - ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00eau r\u00f5 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cung c\u1ea5p cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ed9t \u201cb\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng\u201d r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. Tuy nhi\u00ean, cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a Warsh d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n qu\u00e1n t\u00ednh n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a ACE Markets v\u1ec1 to\u00e0n v\u0103n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o FOMC th\u00e1ng 6 cho th\u1ea5y Warsh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1eddi gian bi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng n\u00e0o cho vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng ho\u1eb7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, \u00f4ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng h\u1ee9a r\u1eb1ng chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n ti\u00ean quy\u1ebft n\u00e0o cho vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec1u xoay quanh vi\u1ec7c \u201cho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tin c\u1eady v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ti\u1ebfp theo\u201d. S\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 \u00fd n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do thi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u00e0 l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng trong phong c\u00e1ch: Fed \u0111ang d\u1ea7n r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp, tr\u1ea3 l\u1ea1i quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 phong c\u00e1ch t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111ang quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi \u201cnh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf\u201d c\u1ee7a k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean Greenspan.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260623_163844\"<\/p>\n

Ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gia t\u0103ng. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y sau khi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 5, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 2 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 15 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 MOVE (ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 20% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p trong th\u00e1ng 4. Quan s\u00e1t t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 Angel Oak Capital ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a ACE Markets: v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay, nh\u01b0ng \u201cs\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao\u201d s\u1ebd thay th\u1ebf \u201cxu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u\u201d l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac; kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch theo t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ee3t s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i.<\/p>\n

<\/a>II. N\u1edbi l\u1ecfng neo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi \u201cgi\u00e1o \u0111i\u1ec1u s\u1ed1\u201d v\u00e0 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong phong c\u00e1ch truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1ec1 ngo\u00e0i th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00e0 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y v\u00e0 logic s\u00e2u xa nh\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecf qua nh\u1ea5t. B\u00e0i b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u1ef1u Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Stephen Milan tr\u00ean t\u1edd Financial Times v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee5m t\u1eeb \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1\u201d trong c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eedi \u0111i m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 2% c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch s\u1ebd quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3\u201d.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ACE Markets tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft, b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t bao g\u1ed3m nhi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p lu\u1eadn. V\u00ed d\u1ee5: vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u00e0 \u1edf do ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc cho m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 c\u00f3 ch\u1ed7 cho s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u1ee7 quan l\u00e0 sai l\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t logic. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4, PCE c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 3,77% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 PCE c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i t\u0103ng 3,29% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, v\u01b0\u1ee3t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2% trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp. IMF th\u1eadm ch\u00ed \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e3n th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c 2% \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2027. Vi\u1ec7c tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c, g\u00e2y s\u1ed1c cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c li\u00ean t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260623_164021\"<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i, s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c d\u01b0\u1edbi 2% m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u201cnh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh linh ho\u1ea1t\u201d, c\u1ed1 t\u00ecnh dung t\u00fang nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c, cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao 40 n\u0103m m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n. N\u1ebfu khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1\u201d linh ho\u1ea1t h\u01a1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3 th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1edbm h\u01a1n, tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nguy c\u01a1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t phi m\u00e3 sau \u0111\u00f3. ACE Markets d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a Fed s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u PCE m\u00e0 s\u1ebd d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 r\u1ed5 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00ednh linh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c giao d\u1ecbch truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 2% k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

<\/a>III. T\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh: \u201cGi\u1ea3m g\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c\u201d B\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n, L\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i logic thu g\u1ecdn b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u1edbp th\u1ee9 ba c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch Walsh l\u00e0 t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n, \u0111\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n nh\u1ea5t cho ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u201cquy m\u00f4 thu h\u1eb9p b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n\u201d m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng quan t\u00e2m, b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y n\u1eb1m \u1edf s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n logic thu h\u1eb9p b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n - t\u1eeb \u201cgi\u1ea3m n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 n\u00e9n ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef\u201d sang \u201cgi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u1ee3.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ACE Markets \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ed9c l\u1ed9 b\u1ed1n v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn: vi\u1ec7c tham gia s\u00e2u v\u00e0o ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u00e0m x\u00f3i m\u00f2n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7; tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng trung gian t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a n\u00f3; si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t kh\u00f4ng gian \u0111\u1ec7m \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng; v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc nguy c\u01a1 l\u1ed7 s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch l\u1edbn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7n D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Milan ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n t\u1eeb 1 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u1ebfn 2 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u1ea3 thi v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c m\u1ea1nh cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. C\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u1eb1m \u1edf nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u \u0111i k\u00e8m: gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0o d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n h\u00f3a c\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u, lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf \u201ck\u1ef3 th\u1ecb\u201d v\u1ec1 c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260623_164254\"<\/p>\n

Do \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ngu\u1ed3n cung cao hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n n\u00e0y, \u01b0u ti\u00ean gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m ngu\u1ed3n cung th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p, s\u1ebd v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n d\u00f2ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c thanh kho\u1ea3n. ACE Markets tin r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i, b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u01a1n s\u1ebd kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed, d\u00e0nh nhi\u1ec1u d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed9ng trong chu k\u1ef3 ti\u1ebfp theo v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

<\/a>IV. \u0110\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i logic giao d\u1ecbch: Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o ba m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng do Warsh d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 xuy\u00ean chu k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a ACE Markets cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong ba m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00ednh \u0111ang d\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201ctr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\u201d sang \u201ctr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 cao\u201d <\/strong>. V\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat l\u1ea1i h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t \u0111i m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m neo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. M\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, CPI v\u00e0 PCE \u0111\u1ec1u g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. S\u1ee9c n\u1eb7ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng theo h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a giao d\u1ecbch xoay v\u00f2ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb n\u1eafm gi\u1eef xu h\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/li>\n
  2. \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201cneo \u0111\u1eadu m\u1ed9t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau\u201d sang \u201c\u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 linh ho\u1ea1t trong ph\u1ea1m vi\u201d. <\/strong>2% kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch; ph\u1ea1m vi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Logic tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u201cc\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t khi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang n\u1eefa.<\/li>\n
  3. \u01afu ti\u00ean chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201cn\u1eafm gi\u1eef th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng\u201d sang \u201cqu\u1ea3n l\u00fd t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\u201d. <\/strong>Trong m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, trong khi ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o giao d\u1ecbch xoay v\u00f2ng v\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch theo \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. \u201cThu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh giao d\u1ecbch\u201d c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 s\u1ebd m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n \u201cthu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    ACE Markets s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i ba c\u1ed9t m\u1ed1c quan tr\u1ecdng th\u00f4ng qua ma tr\u1eadn theo d\u00f5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh: c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp FOMC th\u00e1ng 7, c\u00e1c t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c chi ti\u1ebft v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n, nh\u1eb1m gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro khi thay \u0111\u1ed5i quy \u0111\u1ecbnh trong th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 duy tr\u00ec tr\u00ean 4,5% do s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Warsh lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9585,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[806,135,807],"class_list":["post-9584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-bond-yields","tag-federal-reserve","tag-us-treasury"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9584"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9589,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9584\/revisions\/9589"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}