{"id":9433,"date":"2026-05-13T08:53:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T08:53:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9433"},"modified":"2026-05-13T08:53:39","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T08:53:39","slug":"the-two-way-interplay-of-fed-policy-expectations-warshs-appointment-as-a-new-director-is-a-key-variable-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/the-two-way-interplay-of-fed-policy-expectations-warshs-appointment-as-a-new-director-is-a-key-variable-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c hai chi\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed: Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m Warsh l\u00e0m gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c m\u1edbi l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng trong n\u0103m nay"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a ACE Markets, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang r\u01a1i v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i hai chi\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang: m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, Citigroup v\u00e0 Mitsubishi UFJ \u0111ang b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 b\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay, gi\u1eef v\u1eefng l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean logic c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u201cm\u1ea1nh b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, y\u1ebfu b\u00ean trong\u201d c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t CPI th\u00e1ng 4 t\u0103ng nhanh, Goldman Sachs l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c leo thang. Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1eafp t\u1edbi, Warsh, s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t khung ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u1eb9p. ACE Markets lu\u00f4n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng x\u00e1c minh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u tr\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n l\u00e0m ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ec3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c gi\u00fap th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e2m nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1.<\/p>\n

<\/a>S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng: logic c\u1ee7a Citigroup v\u00e0 Mitsubishi UFJ v\u00e0 x\u00e1c minh h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a ACE Markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sau khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 \u1edf Iran, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u tr\u1edf n\u00ean di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u, trong \u0111\u00f3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf. C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng quan \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp c\u1ee7a FOMC \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1992. C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf ho\u1eb7c ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, Citigroup v\u00e0 Mitsubishi UFJ \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t trong s\u1ed1 \u00edt c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u duy tr\u00ec l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay. Ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd r\u1ea5t ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi C\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a ACE Markets v\u1ec1 \u201cs\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng Hoa K\u1ef3\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260513_144958\"<\/p>\n

ACE Markets x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hai t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o ch\u00fang b\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. S\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m l\u00e0 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng mong manh <\/strong>: t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u1edf M\u1ef9 \u0111ang cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a \u201ccung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu\u201d, v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i g\u00e2y ra l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t; M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,3% nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u1eabn \u00e2m th\u1ea7m t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tham gia l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m. N\u1ebfu t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng quan tr\u1ecdng 4,5%, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/li>\n
  2. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ph\u00ecnh to <\/strong>: Trong m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 kho\u1ea3ng 2%, g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda l\u00e0 do c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn AI. N\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 kh\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, nguy c\u01a1 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng l\u1ed9 di\u1ec7n.<\/li>\n
  3. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf trong bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1eb9p <\/strong>: M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao hi\u1ec7n nay ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u00e8n \u00e9p c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eeba v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111ang d\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. Mitsubishi UFJ \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay t\u1eeb 75 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n xu\u1ed1ng 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, trong khi Citigroup duy tr\u00ec d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 75 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 ra nhu c\u1ea7u n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    <\/a>\u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng: Goldman Sachs t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI k\u00edch th\u00edch \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. ACE Markets, th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c theo d\u00f5i \u0111a chi\u1ec1u c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ph\u00e1i sinh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng logic \u0111\u1eb1ng sau xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Goldman Sachs r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111ang l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 <\/strong>, l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang duy tr\u00ec m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u201ccao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 l\u00e2u h\u01a1n\u201d, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 G10. Goldman Sachs khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb n\u00ean mua \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng krona Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n, euro v\u00e0 b\u1ea3ng Anh. ACE Markets cho bi\u1ebft th\u00eam r\u1eb1ng Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb c\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260513_150802\"<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI th\u00e1ng 4 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t <\/strong>: L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111ang nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n tr\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u1eefa n\u0103m sau t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, v\u1edbi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m sau l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 85%. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ecdn SOFR \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bm\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/li>\n
      2. C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i <\/strong>: M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 quan ch\u1ee9c Fed \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1c b\u1ecf k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, trong \u0111\u00f3 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Chicago Goolsby tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang lan r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        <\/a>Bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh: Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m Warsh t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u00e0o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i h\u1eb9p v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

        V\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c Warsh chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn ch\u1ee9c ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2026. ACE Markets \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Warsh v\u1edbi m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i:<\/p>\n