{"id":9335,"date":"2026-04-14T09:19:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T09:19:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9335"},"modified":"2026-04-14T09:19:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T09:19:46","slug":"what-exactly-happened-in-the-gold-market-from-its-historical-high-to-a-single-month-plunge-of-11-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/what-exactly-happened-in-the-gold-market-from-its-historical-high-to-a-single-month-plunge-of-11-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng, t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m 11,5% trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng?"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2026, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f3 hi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 leo thang ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, trong khi v\u00e0ng, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi coi l\u00e0 \u201ct\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng\u201d, \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t lao d\u1ed1c kinh ho\u00e0ng. Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m 11,5% ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng, \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2008, gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 1.000 USD so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed h\u01a1n 5.500 USD\/ounce v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y, ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi logic tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

<\/a>M\u1ed9t c\u01a1n b\u00e3o ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng lao d\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t g\u00e2y ra m\u00e0 l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bao g\u1ed3m kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t trong h\u00e0nh vi c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a> 1. Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t thanh kho\u1ea3n trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

Suki Cooper c\u1ee7a Standard Chartered ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng v\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb b\u00e1n th\u00e1o trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng do nhu c\u1ea7u thanh kho\u1ea3n - khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m g\u00e2y ra c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh g\u1ecdi k\u00fd qu\u1ef9, v\u00e0ng, v\u1edbi t\u00ednh thanh kho\u1ea3n cao v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u. Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u00ecm h\u00e3m gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng trong 4-6 tu\u1ea7n sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng; trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2008, v\u00e0ng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t h\u01a1n 4 th\u00e1ng m\u1edbi ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7. Sau cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u00e0y, s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i qu\u00e1 mua nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1999 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 sang tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u00e1n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013, c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

<\/a> 2. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng.<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00f3 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ngh\u1ecbch r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh gi\u1eefa v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. V\u00ec v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c hay l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00ean chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m. M\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan n\u00e0y t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022 do c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng mua v\u00e0ng quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn, nh\u01b0ng trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng gi\u1eefa v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

<\/a> 3. Vi\u1ec7c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u1ecdng r\u01a1m cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng lao d\u1ed1c. Sau khi Chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran-Iraq b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n ho\u1eb7c cho vay s\u1ed1 v\u00e0ng tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 20 t\u1ef7 USD. Theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Metals Focus, t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 27\/2 \u0111\u1ebfn 27\/3, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng 52 t\u1ea5n v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n 79 t\u1ea5n giao d\u1ecbch ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0ng, gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef xu\u1ed1ng 440 t\u1ea5n, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong h\u01a1n 2 n\u0103m, trong n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 31%. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, Nga \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n 15 t\u1ea5n v\u00e0ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m nay, v\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ba Lan \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t b\u00e1n v\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e2y qu\u1ef9 qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m theo. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u00e1 l\u00ean v\u00e0ng, v\u1edbi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng mua r\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 863 t\u1ea5n t\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong h\u00e0nh vi n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 g\u00e2y ra l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>C\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean kh\u1ed1i m\u00e0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Trong khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang b\u00e1n h\u1ebft l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh th\u00ec nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i \u0111ang t\u0103ng d\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef. D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c 74,38 tri\u1ec7u ounce v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3, t\u0103ng 160.000 ounce so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 th\u00e1ng t\u0103ng th\u1ee9 17 li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee3t mua l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u0103m. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch r\u00fat v\u00e0ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng n\u00e0o \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi an ninh d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tin r\u1eb1ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb lay chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nguy\u00ean. V\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eeba \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft v\u1eeba \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t \u0111i ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Kinh nghi\u1ec7m l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t khi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n th\u00e1o ETP \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i, cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb x\u00f3a b\u1ecf ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn hai r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i:<\/p>\n