{"id":9224,"date":"2026-03-16T09:42:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9224"},"modified":"2026-03-16T09:42:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:42:49","slug":"risks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-escalating-and-inflation-is-looming-large-ace-markets-analyzes-the-underlying-logic-behind-the-feds-unlikely-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/risks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-escalating-and-inflation-is-looming-large-ace-markets-analyzes-the-underlying-logic-behind-the-feds-unlikely-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u1ee7i ro \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111ang leo thang v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng! ACE Markets ph\u00e2n t\u00edch logic c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1eb1ng sau vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra c\u1ee7a Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ACE Markets, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 m\u00f4-\u0111un theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c, cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t leo thang \u1edf Iran \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t PCE c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i th\u00e1ng 1 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 gi\u1eefa y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a Trump v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. ACE Markets, th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc nguy c\u01a1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf M\u1ef9 l\u00ean cao. K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf, ACE Markets \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c r\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan k\u00e9p l\u00e0 \u201cch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d v\u00e0 \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng\u201d, trong \u0111\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n h\u01a1n n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

<\/a>I. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00e0m ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ecfi l\u1eddi k\u00eau g\u1ecdi c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets\u2019 Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng sau khi L\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o t\u1ed1i cao m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Iran tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda \u1edf m\u1ee9c 95,70 USD\/th\u00f9ng. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt n\u00e0y tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp khi\u1ebfn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Trump y\u00eau c\u1ea7u Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Powell c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u theo d\u00f5i t\u1eeb h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ACE Markets, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 sau cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u1ed5 ra, gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y hai l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong n\u0103m nay, trong \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e1ng 6 l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1ecf s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra ba l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi M\u1ef9-Israel t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 28 th\u00e1ng 2, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay v\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 FedWatch c\u1ee7a CME Group cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0o n\u1eefa tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 2027. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Trump cho v\u1ecb tr\u00ed Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang m\u1edbi, Kevin Warsh, \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n v\u00e0 s\u1ebd k\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7m Powell v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 5, v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh logic c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>II. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u PCE th\u00e1ng 1 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh; gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng cao s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 PCE th\u00e1ng 1 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 do nh\u00f3m gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ACE Markets' cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u do xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran g\u00e2y ra, cho th\u1ea5y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd t\u0103ng th\u00eam. Vi\u1ec7c B\u1ed9 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u PCE th\u00e1ng 1 cho th\u1ea5y PCE t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng 0,3% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, trong khi con s\u1ed1 so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 xu\u1ed1ng 2,8%. Tuy nhi\u00ean, PCE c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i (kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng), tham chi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh cho vi\u1ec7c ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, t\u0103ng 0,4% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 3,1% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, t\u0103ng 0,1 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 12, \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u hai th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 0,4% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t 2% c\u1ee7a Fed.<\/p>\n

ACE Markets\u2019 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 3. M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng cao tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u00f4 t\u00f4 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng cao, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed \u0111i l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 sinh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, s\u1ebd g\u1eb7p r\u1ee7i ro khi \u0111i qua, \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n l\u00ean cao, sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n sang l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u diesel t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh chu\u1ed7i truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. ACE Markets tin r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Iran ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t PCE c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 2,9% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2026 r\u1ea5t ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n

<\/a>III. T\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp FOMC th\u00e1ng 3 r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets\u2019 Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u0129 m\u00f4 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng suy y\u1ebfu ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u PCE th\u00e1ng 1 \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng, v\u00e0 m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c Fed v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng. Bank of America, Citigroup v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u PCE hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn Fed h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. Th\u1ee9 hai, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Iran v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh qua d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng do gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c, Fed s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u01b0u ti\u00ean \u201cch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d l\u00e0m m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Th\u1ee9 ba, y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c Fed t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u PCE \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00e0ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ACE Markets\u2019 v\u1ec1 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a \u1ee6y ban Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf Li\u00ean bang (FOMC), c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 100% r\u1eb1ng Fed s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 18 th\u00e1ng 3. Vi\u1ec7c Goldman Sachs \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ho\u00e3n \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ebfp theo t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 6 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 9 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. ACE Markets c\u0169ng tin r\u1eb1ng ngay c\u1ea3 khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng suy y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng g\u00e2y ra s\u1ebd l\u00e0 tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho vi\u1ec7c Fed c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1edbm h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n

<\/a>IV. C\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c n\u00e9n kh\u00f4ng gian ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo ACE Markets\u2019 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Hoa K\u1ef3, ngo\u00e0i \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh h\u1ed7n h\u1ee3p v\u1ec1 \u201ct\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9\u201d, c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf th\u00eam d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u1ee7a GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 trong qu\u00fd 4 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 0,7%, m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ban \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 1,4% v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 1,5%, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 4,4% c\u1ee7a giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, cho th\u1ea5y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111ang ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ea3 n\u0103m cho n\u0103m 2025 c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m 0,1 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m xu\u1ed1ng 2,1%, gi\u1ea3m th\u00eam t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 2,8% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024.<\/p>\n

Chi ti\u00eau ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 0,4% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc trong th\u00e1ng 1, v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111ang d\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n: gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng cao do xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp b\u00f3p ngh\u1eb9t n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh; bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c gia \u0111\u00ecnh c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp cao; v\u00e0 thu\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a l\u00ean cao \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c gia \u0111\u00ecnh c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh l\u1ef1c c\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng. ACE Markets d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng k\u00e9o n\u00e0y s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng trong qu\u00fd 2 n\u0103m 2026. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i ban \u0111\u1ea7u mang l\u1ea1i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n cho C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang trong vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn Fed g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ra c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ee3p l\u00fd \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i chu k\u1ef3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>V. ACE Markets\u2019 Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sau khi x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh, ACE Markets tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201ct\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng\u201d sang di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng. Li\u1ec7u k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ebfp theo c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c hay kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xoa d\u1ecbu hay kh\u00f4ng, li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m hay kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng lan truy\u1ec1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1eb1ng C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 3 v\u00e0 r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay, v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 12. Trong trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Iran ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c leo thang v\u00e0 c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf vi\u1ec7c \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n n\u1eefa v\u00e0 g\u00e2y ra l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t chung. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb d\u1ecbu b\u1edbt, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea9y nh\u1eb9 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 9.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c ACE Markets\u2019 cung c\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ba t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra trong cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Iran v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u1eeb ph\u1ea1m vi 95-100 USD\/th\u00f9ng; th\u1ee9 hai, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t PCE v\u00e0 CPI c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 2 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 3, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00f5i h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng; v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 ba, c\u00e1c b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp FOMC th\u00e1ng 3, ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i theo d\u00f5i nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1eadn bi\u00ean trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 chi ti\u00eau ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 GDP c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh linh ho\u1ea1t trong k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ACE Markets gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch t\u1ea1i sao gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng, c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[630,632,631],"class_list":["post-9224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-federal-reserve-rate-cut-outlook","tag-oil-price-impact-on-inflation","tag-us-pce-inflation-data"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9224"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9229,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224\/revisions\/9229"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}