{"id":9173,"date":"2026-03-03T01:40:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T01:40:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9173"},"modified":"2026-03-03T01:40:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T01:40:23","slug":"the-chain-reaction-of-shipping-disruptions-is-becoming-apparent-with-the-strait-of-hormuz-becoming-a-bottleneck-in-the-global-lng-supply-chain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/the-chain-reaction-of-shipping-disruptions-is-becoming-apparent-with-the-strait-of-hormuz-becoming-a-bottleneck-in-the-global-lng-supply-chain\/","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u00fat th\u1eaft trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng LNG to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ACE Markets, c\u01a1 s\u1edf d\u1eef li\u1ec7u theo d\u00f5i v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung c\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, s\u1ef1 leo thang g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi Israel v\u00e0 Iran \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m huy\u1ebft m\u1ea1ch quan tr\u1ecdng trong th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc, g\u00e2y ra bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng (LNG). ACE Markets\u2019 m\u00f4-\u0111un c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng leo thang \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi g\u1eedi c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n

<\/a>I. Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb leo thang khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 leo thang li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. ACE Markets\u2019 Theo d\u00f5i th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng sau cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9-Israel gi\u1ebft ch\u1ebft L\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o t\u1ed1i cao Iran Khamenei v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea5p cao, Iran \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia. Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t trong khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 leo thang to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

\"\u1ea2nh<\/p>\n

L\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quan tr\u1ecdng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz x\u1eed l\u00fd kho\u1ea3ng 1\/5 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 1\/5 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bu\u00f4n b\u00e1n LNG c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, v\u1edbi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00f4ng qua b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 19 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u l\u1ecfng. ACE Markets, t\u00edch h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u theo d\u00f5i t\u00e0u, kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc: do ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m b\u1ecb th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 t\u00e0u ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro, l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ng\u00e0y 28\/2 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 4 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng 1\/4 m\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng; Vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n LNG c\u0169ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, v\u1edbi \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 13 t\u00e0u ch\u1edf LNG tr\u1ed1ng \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng tuy\u1ebfn, t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng cung c\u1ea5p d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Qatar v\u1edbi \u00c2u \u00c1. N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng khuy\u1ebfn c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba; n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, nguy c\u01a1 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ebd leo thang \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

<\/a>II. Ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c; ph\u00e2n t\u00edch gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u \u0111a k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n. ACE Markets\u2019 Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u, \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 x\u00e1c minh r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef tr\u00ean b\u1edd c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3y qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn \u1edf v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 22 ng\u00e0y s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 th\u00eam kh\u00f4ng gian l\u01b0u tr\u1eef tr\u00ean t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u, vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong t\u1ed1i \u0111a 25 ng\u00e0y; ngo\u00e0i ra, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng. C\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng thay th\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi v\u00e0 UAE s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00f3 c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i.<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh, ACE Markets \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ba k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: Xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt trong v\u00f2ng 1-2 tu\u1ea7n, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 80-90 USD\/th\u00f9ng;<\/li>\n
  2. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i: C\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ecb t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u00ean 120 USD\/th\u00f9ng; x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 20%.<\/li>\n
  3. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9: N\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ s\u1ebd v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

    Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 x\u00e1c minh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro kho\u1ea3ng 18 USD\/th\u00f9ng, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n vi\u1ec7c \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n trong 6 tu\u1ea7n. Kho\u1ea3ng 9% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u diesel v\u00e0 18% ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u m\u00e1y bay ph\u1ea3n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u li\u00ean quan c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>III. Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG: Nguy c\u01a1 gia t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1<\/strong><\/p>\n

    So v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng lan t\u1ecfa c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. ACE Markets\u2019 H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean chu\u1ea9n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn Iran, cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng cho nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 do s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n. \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi quan \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb \u200b\u200bnh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n

    C\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n LNG qua eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u00c1-\u00c2u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 130% l\u00ean 25 USD tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb nhi\u1ec7t Anh (MMBtu); n\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n hai th\u00e1ng, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean TTF c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100 euro m\u1ed7i megawatt gi\u1edd, g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. X\u00e9t v\u1ec1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng trong khu v\u1ef1c, Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, v\u00ec xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u LNG c\u1ee7a Qatar ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ch\u1ea3y sang hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u00ean eo bi\u1ec3n s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u r\u00f2ng LNG l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u00f3 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ebft c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, khi\u1ebfn h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ch\u1ed7 cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ed5 sung \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n

    \"h\u00ecnh<\/p>\n

    <\/a>IV. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u: Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng, nh\u01b0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    ACE Markets, th\u00f4ng qua x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111a chi\u1ec1u, tin r\u1eb1ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n mang t\u00ednh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. Nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec7m s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Ranh gi\u1edbi xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c: Cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, ch\u01b0a b\u00ean n\u00e0o ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i nh\u01b0 m\u1ecf d\u1ea7u, nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 kho c\u1ea3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. Iran ch\u01b0a v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf v\u00e0 ch\u01b0a ch\u1ea1m t\u1edbi c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n
    2. B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i: cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng cao \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean c\u1ee7a k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/li>\n
    3. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec7m an to\u00e0n: t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ed5 sung \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p tr\u01b0\u1edbc xung \u0111\u1ed9t, B\u1eafc b\u00e1n c\u1ea7u b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u00f9a tr\u00e1i v\u1ee5 v\u00ec nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua ch\u00e2u \u00c1 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro.<\/li>\n
    4. Ngu\u1ed3n cung b\u1ed5 sung: Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Nga \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua nh\u01b0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng mua h\u00e0ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \"H\u00ecnh<\/p>\n

      <\/a>V. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u00ednh<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n ACE Markets\u2019, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, t\u00e2m l\u00fd e ng\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng; n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n t\u1ea1i eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n, chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c mang t\u00ednh h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00ean cao v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

      N\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng n\u00e0y khuy\u00ean nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00ean theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd ba t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a Iran, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd c\u00f3 nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u1eb7c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz hay kh\u00f4ng; th\u1ee9 hai, s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a giao th\u00f4ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong kh\u1ea9u v\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 t\u00e0u v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m; v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 ba, c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, bao g\u1ed3m gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a OPEC+ v\u00e0 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Nga. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c ACE Markets\u2019 v\u00e0 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 lu\u00f4n c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      ACE Markets ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 LNG c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng theo th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9174,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[604,602,603],"class_list":["post-9173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-crude-oil-price-forecast","tag-middle-east-geopolitical-tensions","tag-strait-of-hormuz-shipping-risk"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9173"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9179,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9173\/revisions\/9179"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}