{"id":9004,"date":"2026-01-12T08:56:51","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T08:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9004"},"modified":"2026-01-12T08:56:55","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T08:56:55","slug":"non-farm-payroll-data-barometer-shifts-the-feds-policy-anchor-point-shifts-and-new-market-dynamics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/non-farm-payroll-data-barometer-shifts-the-feds-policy-anchor-point-shifts-and-new-market-dynamics\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u201cphong v\u0169 bi\u1ec3u\u201d thay \u0111\u1ed5i! \u0110i\u1ec3m neo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t phong v\u0169 bi\u1ec3u ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ee9c s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9, vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. T\u1eeb s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025 cho \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 v\u1ea1ch ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u1ec1 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed9t tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t hi\u1ebfm c\u00f3: s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng. B\u00e1o c\u00e1o b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 9 cho th\u1ea5y 119.000 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o trong th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00f3, v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 51.000, tuy nhi\u00ean t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn t\u0103ng l\u00ean 4,4% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u trong quan h\u1ec7 cung c\u1ea7u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. S\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n sau khi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda; trong khi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p gia t\u0103ng l\u00e0 do kho\u1ea3ng 500.000 ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u00e1i gia nh\u1eadp th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 tham gia l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u0103ng l\u00ean. S\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u00e0y b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra.<\/p>\n

\"h\u00ecnh<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1o c\u1ee7a th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y: t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 8 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 75,6% v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u1ee7a 12.000 doanh nghi\u1ec7p b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n cho \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 9. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1eadp trung tuy\u1ec3n d\u1ee5ng 19.000 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u00e1o vi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed m\u1edbi l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 38.000 trong th\u00e1ng 9. Ngo\u00e0i ra, \u201cnhi\u1ec1u v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea tr\u00f9ng l\u1eb7p\u201d trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t v\u1ec1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 74.000, trong khi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef1 do trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ea5p ho\u1eb7c b\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m.<\/p>\n

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 12 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u2014 v\u00ec d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 \u0111\u00fang th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n sau 43 ng\u00e0y ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda, \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u00e0 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tham chi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 thay th\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh cho th\u1ea5y b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo m\u00f9a ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 50.000 trong th\u00e1ng 12 (th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bl\u00e0 60.000, v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00e0nh 56.000), v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0 4,4%, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. V\u1ec1 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0103n u\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 ch\u0103m s\u00f3c s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, trong khi vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m b\u00e1n l\u1ebb gi\u1ea3m. V\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 gi\u1edd l\u00e0m, m\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u01a1ng trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ed7i gi\u1edd c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n vi\u00ean phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n t\u0103ng 0,3% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00ean 37,02 USD (t\u0103ng 3,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc), trong khi s\u1ed1 gi\u1edd l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 xu\u1ed1ng 34,2 gi\u1edd. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 10 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 76.000 v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ba th\u00e1ng gi\u1ea3m 22.000, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng. Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o c\u1ea3 n\u0103m, b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 584.000 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, m\u1ee9c y\u1ebfu nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 2 tri\u1ec7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024.<\/p>\n

\"\u1ea2nh<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang. L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 tham chi\u1ebfu c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed, hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. D\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m trong n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025 \u0111ang xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n: S\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u1edf Challenger b\u1ecb c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng 183% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc trong th\u00e1ng 10 (cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2003) v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ADP th\u00e1ng 11 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng sa th\u1ea3i r\u00f2ng trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng tu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 13.500 trong b\u1ed1n tu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ban \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Fed s\u1ebd c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12, nh\u01b0ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 12 \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng: c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch hi\u1ec7n tin r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng 0. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u CME cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong th\u00e1ng 1 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 11,6% xu\u1ed1ng 2,8% (x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e0 97,2%) v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong th\u00e1ng 3 l\u00e0 32,3%. Lindsey Rosenner c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ban \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt trong th\u00e1ng 11 l\u00e0 do c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 sai l\u1ec7ch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. Fed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng.<\/p>\n

Powell g\u1ee3i \u00fd v\u1ec1 ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao, n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 b\u00e0y t\u1ecf lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng (tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 60.000 so v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o). Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 s\u1edf cho vi\u1ec7c Fed t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan r\u1ed9ng sang th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u00edch c\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9, l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 theo chu k\u1ef3; M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n v\u00e0 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1ef9. \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u1ea3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p y\u1ebfu v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025 v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb leo thang, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f4m nay \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p: V\u00e0ng giao ngay qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ed1c 4.600 USD, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trong ng\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u0103ng l\u00ean 2%, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao 4.612 USD\/ounce, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 4.580,38 USD\/ounce v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3. vi\u1ebft, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u0169y k\u1ebf tr\u00ean 6% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026; b\u1ea1c giao ngay t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 5%, v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ed1c 84 USD v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eadp m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u1edbi, trong khi b\u1ea1c COMEX c\u0169ng t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 5%, ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n 84 USD\/ounce.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,177%, trong khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c si\u00eau d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n 30 n\u0103m v\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i cao \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,84%, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 12 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9, n\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ti\u1ebfp theo ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ef1 mong manh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 m\u1edbi cho c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 Nasdaq, trong khi hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu mang t\u00ednh chu k\u1ef3 nh\u01b0 Dow Jones s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c minh th\u00eam d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 gi\u1ea3m 1,2% trong c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi k\u1ef3, cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd. N\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ti\u1ebfp theo ph\u00e1t ra nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 sai d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 xem x\u00e9t c\u1ea3 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh x\u00e1c minh sau \u0111\u00f3. M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o khu v\u1ef1c b\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian hay khu v\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ea5p; n\u1ebfu v\u1eady, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t cho th\u1ea5y. Nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tham gia l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng. V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2025, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tham gia l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u201cgi\u1ea3m gi\u1ea3\u201d, m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u1ea7n th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025 cho th\u1ea5y kho\u1ea3ng 5,3 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111ang l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian v\u00ec l\u00fd do kinh t\u1ebf (t\u0103ng 980.000 so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc), ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn b\u1ecb bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n th\u1eddi gian do gi\u1ea3m gi\u1edd l\u00e0m ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed to\u00e0n th\u1eddi gian, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i x\u00e1c minh ch\u00e9o v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp theo. N\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh nh\u1eefng m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u kinh t\u1ebf. Trong nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7n ch\u1edd th\u00eam d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e1 s\u1edbm v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

\"h\u00ecnh<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u cung c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025 cho \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 lu\u00f4n \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 trung t\u00e2m nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t phong v\u0169 bi\u1ec3u kinh t\u1ebf. N\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh \u201ch\u1ea1 c\u00e1nh m\u1ec1m\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Hoa K\u1ef3 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1ef1a c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI th\u00e1ng 12 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng. N\u1ebfu CPI t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u00ec vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd b\u1ecb h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch xem x\u00e9t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u00e1c chi ti\u1ebft d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, chi ti\u1ebft th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 x\u00e1c minh ti\u1ebfp theo, ch\u00fang ta m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c h\u01a1n c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 nh\u1ecbp \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u00e0y.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean USD, v\u00e0ng, b\u1ea1c, Kho b\u1ea1c v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9005,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[512,514,513],"class_list":["post-9004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-december-nfp-data","tag-federal-reserve-rate-outlook","tag-us-non-farm-payroll"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9004"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9004\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9010,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9004\/revisions\/9010"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}