{"id":8884,"date":"2025-12-11T08:08:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T08:08:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=8884"},"modified":"2025-12-11T08:08:36","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T08:08:36","slug":"the-feds-third-consecutive-rate-cut-heralds-global-policy-divergence-and-a-new-market-dynamics-emerge-from-the-power-struggle-between-europe-and-japan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/the-feds-third-consecutive-rate-cut-heralds-global-policy-divergence-and-a-new-market-dynamics-emerge-from-the-power-struggle-between-europe-and-japan\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a Fed b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c tranh gi\u00e0nh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 11 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5n \u201cn\u00fat b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u\u201d c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n xu\u1ed1ng 3,50%-3,75%. \u201cM\u1ecf neo n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng\u201d n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi; thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, n\u00f3 tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u201cgi\u1eef \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh\u201d c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 \u201c\u0111\u1ebfm ng\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa ba n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n ri\u00eang l\u1ebb m\u00e0 l\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf l\u1eabn nhau trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 li\u00ean k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 lan truy\u1ec1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, c\u00f9ng nhau ph\u00e1c th\u1ea3o b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026.<\/p>\n

Logic c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1eb1ng sau vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang l\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u201cs\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i\u201d trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf: s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n\u201d. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ed5 sung b\u1edfi ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh mua t\u00edn phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 30 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c xu\u1ed1ng 3,65% \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 d\u1ea5u ch\u1ea5m duy tr\u00ec d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng ranh gi\u1edbi \u201ckh\u00f4ng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c\u201d v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n. Cu\u1ed9c b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu 9-3 (1 phi\u1ebfu cho vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, 2 phi\u1ebfu ch\u1ed1ng) n\u00eau b\u1eadt t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng trong vi\u1ec7c \u201cc\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng r\u1ee7i ro trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng lan t\u1ecfa xuy\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi\u201d trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u. V\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ecf neo thanh kho\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a Fed l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 chuy\u1ec3n sang t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i quan tr\u1ecdng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n xem x\u00e9t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, trong khi Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u1ee3i d\u1ee5ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng tu\u00e2n theo C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang trong vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u0103ng GDP qu\u00fd 3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng r\u1ee7i ro kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2% trong trung h\u1ea1n, do \u0111\u00f3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Logic s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n l\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh thu h\u1eb9p ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u00e2y ra d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n ch\u1ea3y ra ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng euro. Do \u0111\u00f3, th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0110i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ECB, Simkus, \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n sang l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u201ckh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d, trong khi Schnabel ng\u1ea7m ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, duy tr\u00ec s\u1ee9c h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn c\u1ee7a ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 (Villeroy ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n), \u201ckh\u00f4ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t, h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cch\u1edd xem\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng lan t\u1ecfa c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (BOJ) t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t: Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 h\u01a1n 10% do \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eefa Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 M\u1ef9. Vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u00ean t\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 2% v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a thu\u1ebf quan, BOJ \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c BOJ t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 19 th\u00e1ng 12 l\u00e0 91%, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 0,5% l\u00ean 0,75% (m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 30 n\u0103m). Vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o hai m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh: thu h\u1eb9p ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng Y\u00ean v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u; v\u00e0 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt (l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea1t g\u1ea7n 2%, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c) \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh 75 t\u1ef7 USD tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp b\u1edfi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Fed l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n, t\u1ea1o ra v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec7m thanh kho\u1ea3n cho vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n v\u00e0 t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch gi\u1eefa ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb c\u00f4 l\u1eadp m\u00e0 t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t v\u00f2ng kh\u00e9p k\u00edn th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n, li\u00ean k\u1ebft t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc logic \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20251211_143010\"<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7: Ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ee9c h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra \u201cs\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng thu h\u1eb9p\u201d, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, \u0111\u1ed3ng euro \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u201ckh\u00f4ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d c\u1ee7a ECB. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng do nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9, nh\u01b0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u m\u00e0 l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf l\u1eabn nhau: \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c ECB duy tr\u00ec quan \u0111i\u1ec3m di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng euro; ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la y\u1ebfu \u0111i qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra lo ng\u1ea1i t\u1eeb Fed v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu: M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang mua t\u00edn phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp k\u00ecm h\u00e3m l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3, trong khi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng do k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, nh\u01b0ng thanh kho\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o nh\u1edd c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n cung tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i cao. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a ba y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh m\u1edbi tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u: xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gia t\u0103ng trong tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 cao \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i kinh doanh ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n xuy\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro: \u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi c\u1ea3 t\u00ednh thanh kho\u1ea3n d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 s\u1edf thanh kho\u1ea3n cho c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, trong khi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (ECB s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t) \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n mang l\u1ea1i c\u1ea3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 an to\u00e0n. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e1c kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd nh\u01b0 b\u1ea1c, v\u1ed1n \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i cung c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh Fed c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u0103ng cao. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n mang \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i mang t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, trong khi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n

\"h\u00ecnh<\/p>\n

<\/a>T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t<\/strong><\/p>\n

Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n\u201d, v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ho\u1eb7c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i bi\u00ean c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf; v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n s\u1ebd b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n quan s\u00e1t sau \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ti\u1ebfp theo g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ea7n l\u00e0m r\u00f5 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201ctr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i c\u00f3 t\u1ed5ng b\u1eb1ng 0\u201d, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cs\u1ef1 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9ng\u201d trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1eabn nhau v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u: C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u1ea7n ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n, trong khi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u1ea7n tr\u00e1nh bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng do ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft ba logic ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn: c\u1ed5 t\u1ee9c thanh kho\u1ea3n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i lan truy\u1ec1n ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 do s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u ph\u00e1t sinh t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, ba l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1edf M\u1ef9 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c cho s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t t\u1eeb Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn h\u1ee3p l\u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111a c\u1ef1c. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u201cn\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i + ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro ngo\u1ea1i vi\u201d n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng lan truy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed9ng trong c\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch s\u1ebd l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed, s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ECB v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u00ean s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t v\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ea1i d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8885,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[466,465,467],"class_list":["post-8884","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-boj-rate-hike-expectations","tag-ecb-monetary-policy-outlook","tag-fed-rate-cuts-2025"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8884","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8884"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8884\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8889,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8884\/revisions\/8889"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8885"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8884"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8884"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8884"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}