{"id":8682,"date":"2025-11-03T09:09:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T09:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=8682"},"modified":"2025-11-03T09:11:56","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T09:11:56","slug":"a-rising-euro-a-depreciating-yen-and-cooling-expectations-for-interest-rate-cuts-divergent-policies-among-the-three-major-central-banks-are-destabilizing-global-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/a-rising-euro-a-depreciating-yen-and-cooling-expectations-for-interest-rate-cuts-divergent-policies-among-the-three-major-central-banks-are-destabilizing-global-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ed3ng euro t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t: ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c nhau gi\u1eefa ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn \u0111ang g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i \u0111an xen, nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111ang \u1edf c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kh\u00e1c nhau \u2013 khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111ang cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ban \u0111\u1ea7u, s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 \u201ch\u00ecnh ch\u1eef K\u201d \u2013 nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i. C\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd v\u00e0 th\u00f4ng qua t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n, t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e1c m\u1ed1i li\u00ean k\u1ebft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u0169ng b\u00e1o tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

<\/a>L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7: Duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u1ea3 ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ch\u00ednh v\u1ec1 \u201cduy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i\u201d, nh\u01b0ng \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 do c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c nhau, v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t chu\u1ea9n \u1edf m\u1ee9c 2% trong ba l\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Lagarde r\u1eb1ng \u201cch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111ang \u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1ed1t\u201d. Logic h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP qu\u00fd 3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0,2% v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2%. ECB ch\u01b0a ph\u00e1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2028 \u0111\u1ec3 cho ph\u00e9p \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (BOJ) \u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ee9c 0,5% trong s\u00e1u l\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp. Cu\u1ed9c b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu 7-2 n\u00eau b\u1eadt nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 \u201cph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i\u201d v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u y\u1ebfu, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u201cth\u00edch \u1ee9ng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1eeba nhi\u1ec1u d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba cho nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

\"\u1ea2nh<\/p>\n

Kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Sau khi gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 150 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang, Powell \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 \u201cc\u00f2n l\u00e2u m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn\u201d v\u00e0 \u00e1m ch\u1ec9 r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u1eb1m \u1edf s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9: s\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, thi\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u do ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng suy tho\u00e1i xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n cung b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do nhu c\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7. Ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 qu\u00e1n t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c \u201cc\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t li\u00ean t\u1ee5c\u201d.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Logic chung \u0111\u1eb1ng sau c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: ba h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i.<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u xoay quanh ba kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: \u201cneo gi\u1eef m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d, \u201ckh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf\u201d v\u00e0 \u201ckh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i\u201d, n\u00eau b\u1eadt nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c chung m\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t: \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n l\u00e0 m\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u1ea3 ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kho\u1ea3ng 2% l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec3m neo c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u201cg\u1ea7n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh\u201d: ECB tin r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ea7n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u01b0ng tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, v\u1edbi lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean cao trong trung h\u1ea1n; Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n CPI c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 2,7% trong n\u0103m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 2025, sau \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 1,8% trong n\u0103m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 2026, cho th\u1ea5y ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh; v\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t li\u00ean t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i \u201c\u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh\u201d n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, trong khi n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, do \u0111\u00f3 khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u201cch\u1edd xem\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf: S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i chung t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u1ea3 ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u201cs\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i chung\u201d: Ph\u00e1p \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng Euro \u0111ang t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh, trong khi \u0110\u1ee9c v\u1eabn tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7; Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111ang tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t \u201cs\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i\u201d, nh\u01b0ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m trong b\u1ed1n th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp (ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nh\u1eb9 trong th\u00e1ng 9) v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m; Hoa K\u1ef3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u201cs\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 h\u00ecnh ch\u1eef K\u201d \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi ngu\u1ed3n cung lao \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 4 n\u0103m l\u00e0 4,3%, 10% h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda v\u00e0o ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch gi\u00e0u ngh\u00e8o ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u00ednh hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201cm\u1ed9t k\u00edch th\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3\u201d: ECB c\u1ea7n xem x\u00e9t s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i vi, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u1ea7n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nan gi\u1ea3i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee9c r\u1eb1ng \u201cc\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch k\u00edch th\u00edch ch\u1ec9 mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u00e0u\u201d.<\/p>\n

<\/a>R\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i: S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch chung.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tranh ch\u1ea5p th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng lan t\u1ecfa c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng: ECB tr\u00edch d\u1eabn nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia Matthew Savari c\u1ee7a BCA tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3; Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb M\u1ef9 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n; C\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng do thi\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u do ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda. S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1eabn nhau c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng gian ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Li\u00ean k\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u1ea1nh tranh n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9: s\u1ef1 truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i hai chi\u1ec1u c\u1ee7a t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed1i li\u00ean k\u1ebft to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng qua t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u00eanh kh\u00e1c; \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 suy \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

\"h\u00ecnh<\/p>\n

<\/a>Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t phong v\u0169 bi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u201cqu\u00e1n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1\u201d \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ngay c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n. Sau khi \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd c\u00e1c \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: sau quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ECB, \u0111\u1ed3ng euro t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la, t\u00edch l\u0169y m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 12% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2025; sau khi Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 70 \u0111i\u1ec3m so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Nikkei 225 t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9, v\u00e0 \u201cgiao d\u1ecbch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cao\u201d \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, trong khi \u0111\u1ed3ng y\u00ean gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 150 so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la; Nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t \u201ch\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t\u201d c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Powell \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp h\u1ea1 th\u1ea5p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Chia r\u1ebd n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9: Cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh gi\u1eefa di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u00e0 b\u1ed3 c\u00e2u l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c nhau, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a \u201cr\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d so v\u1edbi \u201cr\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng\u201d: Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a b\u1ed3 c\u00e2u c\u1ee7a ECB \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i (c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 40-50% tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00f9a h\u00e8 t\u1edbi), trong khi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00edch th\u00edch c\u1ee7a chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng h\u01a1n n\u1eefa; cu\u1ed9c b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu 7-2 c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c \"ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\" thay v\u00ec \"\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i\", v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng cao, trong khi \u0111a s\u1ed1 lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u trong n\u01b0\u1edbc; C\u00e1c b\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, trong khi Powell v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda cung kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng k\u00edch th\u00edch c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra bong b\u00f3ng. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd \u201cd\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n\u201d h\u01a1n, y\u00eau c\u1ea7u x\u00e1c minh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai: \u0110i\u1ec3m neo ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a ba ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng b\u1edfi \u201cs\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n khi c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft\u201d. C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i bao g\u1ed3m x\u00e1c minh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf, \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. Nh\u1eefng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ch\u00fang v\u00e0 \u201cth\u1eed nghi\u1ec7m th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng\u201d tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng linh ho\u1ea1t\u201d. Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u00e0 tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, vi\u1ec7c ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ECB, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang. Kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8683,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[401,403,402],"class_list":["post-8682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-european-central-bank","tag-global-economic-outlook","tag-monetary-policy-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8682"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8688,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8682\/revisions\/8688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}