{"id":8306,"date":"2025-09-26T08:37:50","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T08:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=8306"},"modified":"2025-09-26T08:37:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T08:37:55","slug":"the-market-trend-under-the-resonance-of-the-us-stock-valuation-bubble-and-the-interest-rate-cut-cycle-in-depth-analysis-of-the-current-bull-bear-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/the-market-trend-under-the-resonance-of-the-us-stock-valuation-bubble-and-the-interest-rate-cut-cycle-in-depth-analysis-of-the-current-bull-bear-game\/","title":{"rendered":"Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a bong b\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 chu k\u1ef3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t! Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 - gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Powell t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f4ng khai \u1edf Rhode Island, g\u1ecdi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 \"\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 cao\", \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ch\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u1eafp th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. M\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u1ee7a giao d\u1ecbch AI c\u0169ng l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3. Nhi\u1ec1u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Powell, v\u00ec S&P 500 v\u00e0 Nasdaq \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n trong ba n\u0103m qua, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Powell kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u00ec \u00f4ng tr\u00edch d\u1eabn kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m \"s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea5n kh\u00edch phi l\u00fd\" do Alan Greenspan \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1996. Sau nh\u1eefng b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Greenspan, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng trong h\u01a1n ba n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh. Li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u00f3 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ph\u1ea3i ch\u1edd xem.<\/p>\n

Ba ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3<\/h2>\n

X\u00e9t theo c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 CAPE: V\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ee9c quan tr\u1ecdng, ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c bong b\u00f3ng Dot-com<\/h3>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 CAPE (t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean thu nh\u1eadp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo chu k\u1ef3) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y so s\u00e1nh ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 v\u1edbi thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng: \u0111\u1ea1t g\u1ea7n 38 v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 8, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2021. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ed1c 40, ngang b\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi nh\u1eadn khi bong b\u00f3ng dot-com v\u1ee1 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2000. V\u1edbi \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9, con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd c\u00f2n t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

\u201cCh\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Buffett\u201d: T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n so v\u1edbi GDP \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2001<\/h3>\n

\u201cCh\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Buffett\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh t\u1eeb t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n so v\u1edbi GDP c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3. Buffett g\u1ecdi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t. Theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Dow Jones, t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 6, t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 64,5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la, v\u00e0 GDP c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 trong qu\u00fd II l\u00e0 23,7 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la. M\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3 x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 2,7 l\u1ea7n GDP, m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2001. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Buffett kh\u00f4ng khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u201cth\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng\u201d, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn coi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tham chi\u1ebfu quan tr\u1ecdng. L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_258\"<\/p>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean doanh s\u1ed1: S&P 500 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c so v\u1edbi doanh s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn<\/h3>\n

T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean doanh thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 kh\u00e1ch quan h\u01a1n v\u00ec \u00edt b\u1ecb thao t\u00fang k\u1ebf to\u00e1n h\u01a1n. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 8, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean doanh thu d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bc\u1ee7a S&P 500 trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t 3,12, m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng so s\u00e1nh c\u1ee7a th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o n\u00e0y v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Ph\u1ed1 Wall ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n \u00edt c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong 12 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1, bao g\u1ed3m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang: \u201ct\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u0103ng gi\u00e1\u201d hay \u201cbi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro\u201d cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Hoa K\u1ef3?<\/h2>\n

Gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng tranh lu\u1eadn \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a LPL Financial cho th\u1ea5y sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf g\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed: X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3 trong 12 th\u00e1ng sau khi c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 90%.<\/h3>\n

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia K\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt Tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a LPL, Adam Turnquist, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1984, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 28 l\u1ea7n khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1ch m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t m\u1ecdi th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i 3%. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 13% trong 12 th\u00e1ng sau khi c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng 93% trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3. Turnquist l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng r\u1ee7i ro suy tho\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 th\u1ea5p, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 do kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 chu k\u1ef3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t mang t\u00ednh suy tho\u00e1i. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u1edbi GDP th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m l\u00e0 3,3% trong qu\u00fd II v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c 3,3% trong qu\u00fd III.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn k\u1ef9 h\u01a1n, vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf hay kh\u00f4ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: 21 l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi suy tho\u00e1i v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trung b\u00ecnh 12 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0 18%, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn d\u01b0\u01a1ng; 7 l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i (trong v\u00f2ng 6 th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 sau suy tho\u00e1i) v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y gi\u1ea3m trung b\u00ecnh 2,7% trong 12 th\u00e1ng, v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 25% s\u1ed1 k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c: l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng mua qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n<\/h3>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

Turnquist l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i nh\u1edd l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang th\u1ea5p, s\u1ef1 k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u1eeb d\u1ef1 lu\u1eadt \"Big, Big\" v\u00e0 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 t\u0103ng 12,9% trong n\u0103m nay v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng mua qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 cho th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i mua v\u00e0o. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng suy y\u1ebfu. Samana c\u0169ng tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \"bong b\u00f3ng\" m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh n\u00e0o. \u00d4ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng S&P 500 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m t\u1edbi, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau cho AI. \u00d4ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng AI v\u00e0 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: S\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu Hoa K\u1ef3<\/h2>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang gi\u1eb1ng co gi\u1eefa \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i. C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 CAPE cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a Powell l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro bong b\u00f3ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c Fed li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng AI \u0111ang c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1c quan. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa hai y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y: trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, h\u00e3y c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t tho\u00e1i lui qu\u00e1 mua v\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i mua v\u00e0o khi gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m; trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, h\u00e3y theo d\u00f5i suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao khi Powell c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o ch\u00fang \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 "c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 cao". C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 CAPE, Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Buffett v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean doanh s\u1ed1 cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c do AI th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[286,287,288],"class_list":["post-8306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-federal-reserve-rate-cuts","tag-nasdaq-performance","tag-us-stock-market-valuation"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8306"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8306\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8312,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8306\/revisions\/8312"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}