{"id":9224,"date":"2026-03-16T09:42:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=9224"},"modified":"2026-03-16T09:42:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T09:42:49","slug":"risks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-escalating-and-inflation-is-looming-large-ace-markets-analyzes-the-underlying-logic-behind-the-feds-unlikely-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/risks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-are-escalating-and-inflation-is-looming-large-ace-markets-analyzes-the-underlying-logic-behind-the-feds-unlikely-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uace0\uc870\ub418\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4! ACE Markets\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ubc30\uacbd \ub17c\ub9ac\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"

ACE Markets\uc758 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc608\uce21 \ubd84\uc11d \ubaa8\ub378, \uc2e4\uc2dc\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9 \ucd94\uc801 \ubaa8\ub4c8\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc885\ud569 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774\ub780 \ub0b4 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac00\uaca9 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud558\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d 1\uc6d4 \ud575\uc2ec PCE \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uacaa\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc694\uad6c\uc640 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. ACE Markets\uc740 \uc0c1\ud488 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub2ec \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \ubd80\ucd94\uae38 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc120\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dd\ubcc4\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. ACE Markets\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uae30\ubcf8 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad50\ucc28 \uac80\uc99d\uacfc \uacb0\ud569\ud558\uc5ec \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \"\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud1f4\uce58\"\uc640 \"\uc131\uc7a5 \uc548\uc815\ud654\"\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\uc911 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud560 \uac83\uc774\uba70 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uae30\uac00 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \uc815\ud655\ud558\uac8c \uc608\uce21\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

<\/a>I. \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc694\uad6c\uac00 \uc5b4\uae0b\ub098\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets' \uc2e4\uc2dc\uac04 \uc0c1\ud488 \uac00\uaca9 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uc0c8 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc9c0\ub3c4\uc790\uac00 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ud3d0\uc1c4\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \uacf5\uc5b8\ud55c \ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d WTI \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \uc989\uc2dc \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 $95.70\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uac10\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucd09\ubc1c\uc2dc\ucf30\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5\uc5d0\uac8c \uc989\uac01 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc694\uad6c\ud55c \uac83\uacfc\ub294 \uadf9\uba85\ud55c \ub300\uc870\ub97c \uc774\ub8ec\ub2e4. ACE Markets\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc758 \ucd94\uc801 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc804\ud6c4\uc5d0 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uacaa\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uae30 \uc804, \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ub450 \ubc88\uc758 25\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 6\uc6d4\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc758 \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ucc3d\uad6c\uc600\uc73c\uba70 \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 \uc138 \ubc88\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc801\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc9c0\ub09c 2\uc6d4 28\uc77c \ubbf8\uad6d-\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc774 \uc774\ub780\uc744 \uacf5\uaca9\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uac04\uc2e0\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uadf8\ucce4\uace0, \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\ub3c4 \ud06c\uac8c \ub2a6\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. CME \uadf8\ub8f9\uc758 FedWatch \ub3c4\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud588\uc73c\uba70 12\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ud55c \ubc88\ub9cc \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 2027\ub144 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uac70\uc758 \ub610\ub294 \uc804\ud600 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uc0c8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589 \uc758\uc7a5 \ud6c4\ubcf4\uc778 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc644\ud654\uc801\uc778 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\uace0 5\uc6d4 \uc911\uc21c\uc5d0 \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \ub4a4\ub97c \uc774\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc744 \uc54c\uace0\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ubc14\ub00c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc778 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9 \uacb0\uc815\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub17c\ub9ac\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>II. 1\uc6d4 PCE \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc2ec\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc99d\uac00\uc2dc\ud0ac \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets' \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud300\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d 1\uc6d4 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uce58\uc778 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub118\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \ucd09\ubc1c\ub41c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \uc544\uc9c1 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uac15\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0c1\ubb34\ubd80\uc758 1\uc6d4 PCE \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc804\uccb4 PCE\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud55c \ubc18\uba74, \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44\ub85c\ub294 \uc18c\ud3ed \uac10\uc18c\ud55c 2.8%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uae30\uc900\uc778 \ud575\uc2ec PCE(\uc2dd\ud488 \ubc0f \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc81c\uc678)\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \u200b\u200b\ub300\ube44 0.4% \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44 3.1%\ub85c 12\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 0.1%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 2\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc6d4\ubcc4 0.4% \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud574 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubaa9\ud45c\uc778 2%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

ACE Markets' \uc0c1\ud488-\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub2ec \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub2ec \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 3\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac83\uc784\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8, \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28 \uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc2dc\ucf1c \uc8fc\ubbfc\ub4e4\uc758 \uc5ec\ud589\ube44\uc640 \uc0dd\ud65c\ube44\ub97c \uc99d\uac00\uc2dc\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74, \ube44\ub8cc\uc640 \uc6d0\uc720\uc758 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ud575\uc2ec \uc6b4\uc1a1\ub85c\uc778 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ud1b5\uacfc\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ube44\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc2dd\ud488 \ubd80\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uac00\ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uacbd\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \uc804\uccb4 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc758 \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc99d\uac00\uc2dc\ucf1c \uad81\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dd\ud488, \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uc81c\ud488\uc5d0 \uc774\ub974\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub2ec \uc0ac\uc2ac\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. ACE Markets\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubbff\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ud575\uc2ec PCE \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc728\uc774 2.9%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 Goldman Sachs\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc\uc758 \ubaa8\ub378 \uacc4\uc0b0\uacfc \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc77c\uce58\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

<\/a>III. \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 3\uc6d4 FOMC \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets' \uac70\uc2dc\uc815\ucc45\uc5f0\uad6c\ud300\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc57d\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0 \ub300\ucc98\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uacfc \ud06c\uac8c \ubaa8\uc21c\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc8fc\uc694 \uae30\uad00\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc778\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45 \uc81c\uc57d \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcfc \ub54c: \uccab\uc9f8, 1\uc6d4 PCE \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900 \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc6b0\ub824\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. Bank of America, Citigroup \ubc0f \uae30\ud0c0 \uae30\uad00\ub4e4\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac PCE \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uae30\uc5d0 \ubd88\ucda9\ubd84\ud558\uba70 \ub300\uc2e0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub458\uc9f8, \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc720\uac00 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc640 \uc2dd\ud488 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \"\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubc29\uc9c0\"\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc815\ucc45 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \uc6b0\uc120\uc2dc\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc14b\uc9f8, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 CPI \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc694\uad6c\uc640 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 PCE \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \uc911\uc810\uc744 \ub450\uba74\uc11c \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\uace0, \uc815\ucc45\uc785\uc548\uc790\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80 \uc758\uacac \ubd84\uc5f4\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc644\ud654 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c ACE Markets' \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 3\uc6d4 18\uc77c\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uac70\uc758 100%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. Goldman Sachs\uac00 \ub2e4\uc74c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c 6\uc6d4\uc5d0\uc11c 9\uc6d4\ub85c \uc5f0\uae30\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00\uc640 \ubc00\uc811\ud558\uac8c \uc77c\uce58\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. ACE Markets\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \ub178\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824\uc640 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube68\ub9ac \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud070 \uc7a5\uc560\ubb3c\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubbff\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

<\/a>IV. \ud63c\ud569\ub41c \uacbd\uc81c \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45 \uacf5\uac04\uc744 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc555\ubc15\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets' \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uacfc\ub294 \ubcc4\uac1c\ub85c '\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \uc18c\ube44 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc99d\uac00'\ub77c\ub294 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \ub354\uc6b1 \uc555\ubc15\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc218\uc815\ub41c 4\ubd84\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e4\uc9c8 GDP \uc5f0\uc728\uc740 0.7%\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud574 \ub2f9\ucd08 \ucd94\uc815\uce58 1.4%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub300\ud3ed \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uce58 1.5%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub0ae\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc758 4.4% \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uacfc \uadf9\uba85\ud55c \ub300\uc870\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\uc74c\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \uc5f0\uac04 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\ub3c4 2024\ub144 2.8%\uc5d0\uc11c 0.1%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 2.1%\ub85c \uc218\uc815\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\ub825\uc778 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc740 1\uc6d4 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.4% \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \ubcf4\ud569\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud558\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc810\ucc28 \ubd80\uac01\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uac00\uacc4 \uc18c\ube44 \uc5ec\ub825\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uace0\uc18c\ub4dd\uce35\uc758 \ubd80\uc758 \uac10\uc18c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131; \uc800\uc18c\ub4dd\uce35\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub192\uc774\ub294 \uc218\uc785 \uad00\uc138\ub294 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc5d0 \uac78\ub9bc\ub3cc\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. ACE Markets\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub4dc\ub798\uadf8 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 2026\ub144 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uc810\ucc28 \uba85\ubc31\ud574\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ucc98\uc74c\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uacb0\ud569\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud560 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \ucc3e\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>V. ACE Markets' \ud575\uc2ec \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd \ubc0f \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \uc9c0\uce68<\/strong><\/p>\n

ACE Markets\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\uc6d0\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uad50\ucc28 \uac80\uc99d\ud55c \ud6c4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud604\uc7ac \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\uac00 \"\uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \ub178\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\"\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669\uc758 \uc9c4\ud654\uc640 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc131\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0\ub294 \uc804\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub780 \uac08\ub4f1 \uc644\ud654, \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud558\ub77d\uc138 \ubcf5\uadc0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub2ec \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uc810\ucc28 \ud574\uc18c\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uae30\uc815\uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774\uba70, \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8 \ud55c \ubc88\ub9cc \uc788\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc73c\uba70 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uae30\ub294 12\uc6d4\ub85c \uc5f0\uae30\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \uace0\uc870\ub3fc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ud1b5\uacfc\uac00 \ub9c9\ud790 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc7ac\uac1c\ud560 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ud558\ub77d \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uae30\uac00 12\uc6d4\uc5d0\uc11c 9\uc6d4\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uac00\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c ACE Markets\uc758 \uc2e4\uc2dc\uac04 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ucc30\ub825\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uccab\uc9f8, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uacfc \ud574\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc758 \uc9c4\ud589 \uc0c1\ud669, \ud2b9\ud788 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95~100\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc94\uc704\uc758 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub458\uc9f8, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 2\uc6d4\uacfc 3\uc6d4 PCE \ubc0f CPI \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub370\uc774\ud130, \ud2b9\ud788 \ud575\uc2ec \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc758 \uc6d4\uac04 \ucd94\uc138\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc14b\uc9f8, \ucd5c\uadfc \uc5f0\uc900 \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc5f0\uc124\uacfc 3\uc6d4 FOMC \ud68c\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc131\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\uc758 \uc5ed\ub3d9\uc801\uc778 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ud30c\uc545\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c \ubc0f GDP\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ubcf8 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ucd94\uc801\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ACE Markets \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uc9c1\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uce58\ub97c \uc7ac\ud3b8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9225,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[630,632,631],"class_list":["post-9224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-federal-reserve-rate-cut-outlook","tag-oil-price-impact-on-inflation","tag-us-pce-inflation-data"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9224"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9229,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9224\/revisions\/9229"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}