{"id":8075,"date":"2025-09-15T09:26:53","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T09:26:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/?p=8075"},"modified":"2025-09-23T01:41:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T01:41:00","slug":"is-a-fed-rate-cut-a-foregone-conclusion-shifting-from-fighting-inflation-to-protecting-jobs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/is-a-fed-rate-cut-a-foregone-conclusion-shifting-from-fighting-inflation-to-protecting-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uae30\uc815\uc0ac\uc2e4\uc77c\uae4c? \"\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc\uc758 \uc2f8\uc6c0\"\uc5d0\uc11c \"\uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \ubcf4\ud638\"\ub85c\uc758 \uc804\ud658!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>9\uc6d4 16~17\uc77c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ud68c\uc758\uac00 \ub2e4\uac00\uc634\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774 \uc810\uc810 \ub354 \uba85\ud655\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc644\ud654\ub41c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ubcf5\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc5f0\uc900\uc744 \uad34\ub86d\ud614\ub358 \"\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\"\uc774 \uc810\ucc28 \ud574\uc18c\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4 \uac04\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80 \ub17c\uc7c1\ub3c4 \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc81c\ub3c4\uc801 \uc804\ub9dd\ubd80\ud130 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc785\uc7a5\uae4c\uc9c0, \"\uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc644\ud654\"\ub85c\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc774 \uc784\ubc15\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \uc800\uc870\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \uc774\ubc88 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc758 \uc18d\ub3c4\uc640 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c \uc88c\uc6b0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h2>1. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68: \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc57d\uc138 \uc2ec\ud654, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \ub2e4\uc18c \uc644\ud654<\/h2>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\uc758 \uc9d1\uc911\uc801\uc778 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc778 \ud1a0\ub300\ub97c \ub9c8\ub828\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub0c9\uac01\uc740 \uc608\uc0c1\uc744 \ub6f0\uc5b4\ub118\uc5c8\uace0, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc758 \uc804\ub2ec\uc740 \uc6b0\ub824\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ud569\uccd0\uc838 \uc774\uc804\uc758 \"\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\" \uc6b0\ub824 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uae68\ub728\ub838\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"919\" height=\"544\" class=\"wp-image-8077\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1.png\" alt=\"IMG_256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1.png 919w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1-768x455.png 768w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1-18x12.png 18w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1-900x533.png 900w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-1-600x355.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 919px) 100vw, 919px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>(I) \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5: '\uc548\uc815\uc801'\uc5d0\uc11c '\uc804\ubc18\uc801 \uc57d\uc138'\ub85c<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"translation-block\"><strong>\uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong>\uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 8\uc6d4\uc5d0 4.3%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, 6\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uacf5\uc11d\uc774 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, 2025\ub144 \uc774\uc804 1\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc218\ub294 \ucc98\uc74c \ubcf4\uace0\ub41c \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 100\ub9cc \uac1c \uc801\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li class=\"translation-block\"><strong>\uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uac15\uc870\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong>\uc0b0\uc5c5 \ucc44\uc6a9 \ubc94\uc704\uac00 \uc881\uc544\uc84c\uace0, 2025\ub144 2\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud751\uc778 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 \uae09\uc99d\ud588\uc73c\uba70(\ubc31\uc778\uacfc \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9d0), \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uacf5\uc11d\uc774 \uc5f0\uac04 7% \uc774\uc0c1 \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4(2023\ub144 \ub300\ube44 27.1% \uac10\uc18c).<\/li>\n<li class=\"translation-block\"><strong>\uc9c4\uc9dc \uc57d\uc810\uc740 \uac00\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong> 2024\ub144 \ub9d0 \ucc44\uc6a9 \uae09\uc99d\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uba74 2024\ub144 4\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 2025\ub144 8\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc6d4\ud3c9\uade0 \uc99d\uac00\uc728\uc740 \uc57d 4\ub9cc \uba85\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub0ae\uc740 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 \uc218\uc694\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\ub825 \uacf5\uae09(\uc774\ubbfc \uc81c\ud55c)\uc5d0 \uae30\uc778\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>(II) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc131\uacfc: \uad00\uc138 \uc804\ub2ec\uc740 \uc801\ub2f9\ud558\uace0 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ud1b5\uc81c \uac00\ub2a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h3>\n<p>8\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc804\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc558\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \u200b\u200b\uad00\ub9ac \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 8\uc6d4 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.35% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ubc18\uba74, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubaa9\ud45c \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 \ud575\uc2ec \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE)\uc740 0.18% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce60 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ub9c8\ucc2c\uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\uc778 2%\ub97c 1%p \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc815\ucc45 \uc785\uc548\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uad00\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \uc810\ucc28 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \ubcf4\ud638\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h2>\uae30\uad00 \uc804\ub9dd: \ubd84\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \ud569\uc758\ub85c, Morgan Stanley\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc120\ub3c4<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"730\" height=\"694\" class=\"wp-image-8078\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-2.png\" alt=\"IMG_256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-2.png 730w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-2-300x285.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-2-13x12.png 13w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_256-2-600x570.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\uc5ec \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\uad00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc870\uc815\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc774\uacac\uc774 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \"\uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc644\ud654\"\uac00 \ud569\uc758\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"translation-block\"><strong>\uc804 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uc774\uc0ac\ud68c(FRB) \uad00\uacc4\uc790 \ub77c\uc778\ud558\ud2b8:<\/strong>9\uc6d4\uc758 25\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc778\ud558\ub294 \"\uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815\"\uc774\uc5c8\uace0 \ube44\uc644\ud654 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li class=\"translation-block\"><strong>\ub974\ub124\uc0c1\uc2a4 \ub9e4\ud06c\ub85c \ub450\ud0c0:<\/strong> 50bp \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uad8c\uace0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. FOMC\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud558\uace0 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<li class=\"translation-block\"><strong>\ubaa8\uac74 \uc2a4\ud0e0\ub9ac:<\/strong> \"9\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4\"\uc5d0\uc11c \"4\ucc28\ub840\uc758 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\"\ub85c, 2025\ub144 1\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc911\ub9bd \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9b4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>3. \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc785\uc7a5: '\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824'\uc5d0\uc11c '\uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815'\uc73c\ub85c, \ub0b4\ubd80 \ubc0f \uc678\ubd80 \uc555\ub825\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uade0\ud615 \uc720\uc9c0<\/h2>\n<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uc774\uc0ac\ud68c(Fed)\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub3c4 \uc62c\uc5ec\ub984 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ucd08 '\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5b5\uc81c'\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub298\uc740 '\uace0\uc6a9 \uc720\uc9c0'\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, '\uc2e0\uc911\ud568'\uc774 \ud56d\uc0c1 \ud575\uc2ec \uc6d0\uce59\uc774\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc678\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub300\ucc98\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"827\" height=\"572\" class=\"wp-image-8079\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_257.png\" alt=\"IMG_257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_257.png 827w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_257-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_257-768x531.png 768w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_257-18x12.png 18w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/img_257-600x415.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 827px) 100vw, 827px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>(I) \ub0b4\ubd80 \ubd84\uc704\uae30 \ubcc0\ud654: \uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4 \ub17c\uc7c1 \uc885\uc2dd \ubc0f \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \ubcf4\ud638\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911<\/h3>\n<p>2025\ub144 7\uc6d4, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 \ub450 \uba85\uc758 \uc774\uc0ac\uac00 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ubd84\uc704\uae30 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uacaa\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uade0\ud615 \uc7a1\ud78c \uc815\ucc45\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \ud569\uc758\uc640 \uc0c1\ucda9\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c, \ub2f9\ucd08 \uacc4\ud68d\uc740 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8(bp) \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 7\uba85\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \ubc18\ub300\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \uad00\uc138\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\ubbc0\ub85c, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>(2) \uc678\ubd80 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub300\uc751: \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uac1c\uc785 \ud558\uc758 '\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc870\uc815'<\/h3>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \ubc31\uc545\uad00\uc758 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131\uc744 \ud6fc\uc190\ud558\ub824 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc870\uc815 \ub3c4\uad6c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uc548\uc815\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uac04\uc12d\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h2>IV. \uc694\uc57d \ubc0f \uc804\ub9dd: 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uacb0\uc815\ub41c \uc0ac\ud56d\uc774\uba70, \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"508\" class=\"wp-image-8080\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5.png\" alt=\"\uadf8\ub9bc 5\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5-1024x505.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5-900x444.png 900w, https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/5-600x296.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1030px) 100vw, 1030px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc815\uc0ac\uc2e4\uc774\uba70, 25bp\uc758 \"\uc815\ucc45 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815\"\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc720\ub825\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uc644\ud654 \uc18d\ub3c4 \uc870\uc808\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ud574\uc18c\ud558\uace0 \"\uad00\uc138 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc758 \uc77c\ud68c\uc131 \uc601\ud5a5\"\uc744 \ud574\uc18c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc774 \"\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5b5\uc81c\"\uc5d0\uc11c \"\uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\ud638\"\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub428\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ubaa8\uac74\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \"4\ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 + \uc77c\uc2dc \uc911\ub2e8 + \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uace0\uc6a9\uc758 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\" \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc2e4\ud604 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc120\ud0dd\uc9c0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc704\ud5d8 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 4.5%\ub97c \ucd08\uacfc\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc644\ud654 \uc870\uce58\ub97c \uc911\ub2e8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 8\uc6d4 CPI \uc774\ud6c4, \ubbf8\uad6d 2\ub144 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 2025\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uace0, S&amp;P 500\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 24\ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc FOMC \ud68c\uc758\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ubc94\uc704 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \"\uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\uc6d0\"\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uc9c0\uc758 \uac15\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc704\ud5d8 \uac10\uc218 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>9\uc6d4 16~17\uc77c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed) \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc644\ud654\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc57d\uc138 \uc18d\uc5d0 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubaa8\uac74\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub9ac\ub97c \ube44\ub86f\ud55c \uae30\uad00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8076,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[131,237,236],"class_list":["post-8075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-fed","tag-inflation-trends","tag-monetary-policy-easing"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8075"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8081,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8075\/revisions\/8081"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8076"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mdwcc.com\/ko\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}